Dubai – Qahwa World

Brazil is on track to record one of the largest coffee harvests in its history in 2025. According to the National Supply Company (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento, Conab), total production is expected to reach 56.5 million 60-kg bags, up 4.3% from 2024 and marking the third-largest harvest on record, behind only 2020 and 2018.

Although 2025 is a negative biennial year for coffee trees — a cycle when plants produce fewer beans — the overall result remains strong. The growth is attributed to a combination of a slight reduction in planted area by 1.2% (to 1.85 million hectares) and an increase in average yield, reaching 30.4 bags per hectare.

Robusta (Conilon) Hits Record Production

The main driver of the growth is robusta (conilon) coffee. Production in 2025 is estimated at 20.8 million bags, a 42.1% increase over 2024, setting a new record in Conab’s historical data. Robusta yield also rose significantly to 55.9 bags per hectare (+42.3%).

Key producing states showed substantial gains:

  • Espírito Santo — 14.2 million bags (+43.8%)
  • Bahia — 3.29 million bags (+68.7%)
  • Rondônia — 2.32 million bags (+10.8%)

Stable climatic conditions in these regions contributed to high productivity and record output.

Arabica Faces Decline

Arabica coffee production is down due to the negative biennial cycle and periods of drought. Conab estimates a 2025 arabica harvest of 35.76 million bags, a 9.7% decrease compared to 2024. Average yield fell by 8.4%, to 24.1 bags per hectare, and planted area decreased by 1.5%, to 1.49 million hectares.

Regional performance for arabica:

  • Minas Gerais — 25.17 million bags (–9.2%)
  • São Paulo — ~4.7 million bags (–12.9%)
  • Bahia — 1.14 million bags, up 2.5%, with the Cerrado region increasing by 18.5%

Exports: Lower Volume, Higher Revenue

From January to October 2025, Brazil exported approximately 34.2 million 60-kg bags, a 17.8% decline compared to the same period in 2024, mainly due to limited domestic stocks after the record 50.5 million bags shipped in 2024.

Despite lower volumes, export revenue for the first ten months of 2025 reached $12.9 billion, exceeding the total for 2024 and setting a new annual record. The increase in value is largely due to higher average international coffee prices in 2025.

Global Market Context

USDA analysts predict an increase in global coffee production for the 2025/26 season. However, significant price drops are not expected due to historically low carryover stocks. Global reserves at the start of the 2025/26 season are estimated at 21.8 million 60-kg bags, the lowest in 25 years, which will continue to support prices.