A New Breed of Coffee Consumers
As coffee production has globalised, so too has its consumption. Once dominated by Europe and North America—particularly Scandinavian countries and Italy—the world’s coffee scene is witnessing a dynamic shift. Today, a new wave of consumption is sweeping across emerging markets, especially within traditional coffee-producing nations that historically exported nearly all their harvests. This evolution is reshaping coffee from a purely export commodity into a locally valued and widely consumed product.
Brazil: From Bean Basket to Brew Capital
Brazil exemplifies this transformation. Long regarded as the world’s coffee farm, Brazil is now also one of its largest consumers. With domestic consumption estimated at 22–23 million bags annually, Brazil trails only the United States in total volume. Remarkably, Brazilians now consume nearly half of what the country produces. This surge is driven by cultural traditions like the cafezinho, growing urban cafe culture, rising incomes, and the country’s vast population. While Brazil continues to export most of its beans, this robust internal market adds economic resilience and helps retain more value—through domestic roasting, packaging, and branding.
Vietnam: Brewing a Distinct Identity
Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, has historically leaned toward tea and exported most of its coffee. But that’s changing. Domestic coffee culture—anchored by drinks like cà phê sữa đá (iced coffee with condensed milk)—is thriving, especially among the urban middle class. USDA projections show Vietnam’s domestic coffee consumption rising from 4 million bags in 2024/25 to 4.9 million in 2025/26. Although per-capita consumption remains modest, the growing cafe scene and youthful demographic are fostering a strong internal market.
India: From Chai to Coffee Shops
Traditionally a tea-drinking nation, India is rapidly warming up to coffee. Urbanization, changing lifestyles, and the proliferation of coffee chains have pushed consumption upward. Though still relatively low at 1.3–1.5 million bags annually, India’s coffee market has grown about 30% from 2018 to 2024. Industry experts forecast that the market will double by 2030, as awareness and access spread beyond the southern states into major northern and western cities.
China: The Giant Awakens
No emerging market has embraced coffee as dramatically as China. Once a near-exclusive tea nation, China has seen a nearly 150% increase in coffee consumption over the past decade. Imports have grown from under 1 million bags in 2014/15 to an estimated 3.6 million in 2024/25, with total consumption expected to hit 6.3 million bags this year. The surge is fueled by the rapid expansion of chains like Starbucks and local specialty cafés, especially among younger consumers.
China also grows arabica coffee—primarily in Yunnan province, with an output of around 1.9 million bags—but domestic production covers just 30% of demand. The rest is met through imports, particularly from Brazil and Colombia (the latter recently surpassing Vietnam as China’s top supplier). As Chinese preferences shift from instant to specialty brews, global sourcing patterns are adjusting in response.
Rising Local Demand Across Coffee Lands
Other producing countries like Indonesia and Ethiopia are also seeing increased internal consumption. In Indonesia, branded chains are thriving in major cities, while in Ethiopia, traditional coffee ceremonies remain central to social life, supplemented now by a burgeoning cafe sector. In Central America, countries such as Guatemala and Costa Rica maintain strong export markets but are nurturing vibrant domestic coffee scenes.
Importing emerging economies—such as Turkey, Egypt, and Algeria—also feature prominently in this shift, with established cultural ties to coffee or coffee-like beverages. Yet, the most striking trend is the transformation within exporting nations themselves. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), producing countries now account for nearly 30% of global coffee consumption—up from less than 20% in the 1990s.
This shift means that more coffee is consumed closer to where it’s grown. In years of surplus, it helps balance global supply. But during production shortfalls or price spikes, this broader consumption base adds pressure to already tight markets.
A Market Redefined by Emerging Demand
The implications are far-reaching. Demand growth in countries like China, India, Brazil, Vietnam, and Mexico is expected to continue. With vast populations and relatively low per-capita intake, even small increases in consumption per person translate to major shifts in global demand.
This offers a promising outlook for long-term coffee sales—but also raises critical questions:
-
Can production scale sustainably to meet this growing demand?
-
Will the quality of coffee be preserved amid expansion?
-
And will producing nations capture more of the value chain through roasting, branding, and retail within their own borders?
These questions set the stage for the next chapter in coffee’s evolution, as environmental constraints, supply chain dynamics, and consumer preferences reshape the industry’s global landscape.
