Arabica Leads the Recovery: Coffee Outperforms Sugar, Cotton, and Cocoa in Q3 2025
Dubai – Qahwa World
The agricultural commodities sector gained 1.89% in Q3 2025, driven by strong advances in Arabica coffee and frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures. Despite the quarterly rise, the sector remained 19.25% below its 2024 closing level, with four of five major agricultural commodities ending lower and two down more than 40%.
Arabica coffee was the best-performing agricultural commodity in Q3, climbing 22.2% amid concerns over Brazil’s crop outlook and posting a 17.23% year-to-date increase. Futures closed at $3.7485 per pound at the end of September and climbed further to $4.0875 by mid-October, marking coffee as the standout performer of 2025 so far.
The monthly chart shows sustained bullish momentum that began in late 2024.
Cocoa, however, led the downside after reaching an all-time high of $12,931 per ton in late 2024. Prices plunged 27.86% in Q3 and 42.19% since the start of 2025, closing at $6,749 per ton in September and falling below $5,900 in mid-October. Analysts point to commodity cyclicality — high prices trigger oversupply, larger inventories, and weaker demand.
World sugar futures (#11) rose 4% in Q3 but are still 16.41% lower year-to-date. Prices settled at 16.10 cents per pound at the end of September, well below the November 2023 peak of 28.14 cents. By mid-October, March 2026 contracts were trading near 15.60 cents, extending the bearish trend.
Cotton prices slipped 0.77% in Q3 and 3.85% year-to-date. Futures closed September at 65.77 cents per pound and hovered slightly lower at around 65 cents in mid-October. Cotton has trended downward since the May 2022 high of $1.5595 per pound, though current levels may offer a foundation for recovery if production contracts due to low prices.
While FCOJ gained 11.90% in Q3, it remained the worst-performing agricultural commodity year-to-date, down 51.04%. Prices fell from a December 2024 record of $5.4315 per pound to $2.4355 by the end of September and slipped below $2 in mid-October.
Analysts note that FCOJ’s limited liquidity amplifies volatility, with low open interest and trading volumes causing sharper price swings.
As Q4 begins, coffee prices remain elevated while cocoa, sugar, cotton, and FCOJ continue to slide. However, sugar and cotton may find cyclical support, as low prices typically drive production cuts, inventory drawdowns, and stronger demand — setting the stage for a rebound.
Weather conditions, crop health, trade policies, and geopolitics will continue to shape volatility across agricultural commodities. While coffee may face corrective pressure after its rally, sugar and cotton appear the most likely candidates for recovery — particularly cotton, which tends to peak in Q1–Q2 amid planting uncertainty. With prices below 66 cents per pound, cotton could emerge as the strongest recovery play for 2026.
“Agricultural commodities led the asset class in 2023 and 2024 but have fallen behind in 2025. Yet, cyclicality remains the driving force — where lows are found, the next rallies begin.”
