Arabica Strengthens Its Market Dominance as Robusta Declines

The Global Coffee Market Report for February 2025, published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), reveals a major shift in global coffee exports. Arabica coffee has gained a larger market share, while Robusta faces a sharp decline in exports.

Historic Decline in Robusta Exports

According to the report, Arabica now accounts for 65.4% of total green coffee exports, up from 60.5% in the previous year. This shift is primarily due to the continuous drop in Robusta exports, particularly from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of this variety.

Vietnam’s Robusta exports plunged by 43.8% in January 2025, marking the lowest January export level in six years. The ICO attributes this decline to supply shortages, financing constraints, and logistical challenges affecting shipments.

Global Coffee Prices Reach Record Highs

This decline in Robusta supply comes at a time when global coffee prices are reaching unprecedented levels. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) surged to 354.32 US cents per pound in February 2025, reflecting a 14.3% increase from January, making it the highest monthly average on record.

The report also highlights significant price increases across different coffee categories:

• Colombian Milds rose 16.7% to 410.64 US cents per pound.
• Brazilian Naturals increased by 18.3% to 401.10 US cents per pound.
• Robusta prices climbed 7.2% to 263.08 US cents per pound, despite supply challenges.

The ICO also noted rising market volatility, driven by economic uncertainty, higher trade financing costs, and shifting demand patterns.

The Impact of Robusta’s Decline on the Global Coffee Market

The sharp decline in Robusta exports has forced coffee buyers to reevaluate their sourcing strategies, leading to greater dependence on Arabica. As a result:

• Arabica producers are experiencing stronger demand, driving prices even higher.
• Roasters may have to absorb higher costs, especially for blends that traditionally rely on Robusta.
• Consumers may see higher prices for espresso and instant coffee, both of which heavily depend on Robusta.

Meanwhile, some coffee-producing countries outside Vietnam, such as Indonesia and Uganda, have ramped up Robusta exports in an effort to compensate for the shortfall. However, experts warn that these increases may not be sufficient to fully offset Vietnam’s declining supply, keeping the market under sustained pressure.

What’s Next for the Global Coffee Industry?

As Arabica’s dominance continues to grow and Robusta faces long-term supply risks, the coffee industry is entering a new phase of market realignment. Analysts are closely watching key developments, including:

• Will Vietnam recover its Robusta exports, or will other nations fill the gap?
• How will coffee roasters adjust their strategies in response to these changes?
• Could Arabica’s growing dominance lead to higher prices for premium coffee?

The global coffee market stands at a critical juncture, with new trade patterns emerging and prices reaching historic highs. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term impact of these shifts.