ICO: Coffee Prices Hit Historic Surge as Exports Decline
Dubai, September 3, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization (ICO) in its August 2025 report revealed unprecedented shifts in the global coffee market, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) rising by 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound – its highest level since 2024 and 24.3% higher year-on-year. At the same time, the report highlighted that global green coffee exports continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, underscoring the dual pressure of soaring prices and shrinking supplies.
Historic Price Surge
According to the ICO, all coffee groups recorded strong gains. Robusta led the surge with a 19.1% increase to 199.13 US cents per pound, while Colombian Milds, Brazilian Naturals, and Other Milds rose between 12% and 14%. Futures prices also jumped sharply, with New York contracts up 13.6% and London contracts up 18.2%, signaling broad-based upward momentum.
Market Drivers
The report identified multiple factors fueling the rally:
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The United States’ 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, slowing down commercialization.
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Brazil’s government support through the Funcafé fund, allocating BRL 6.8 billion (USD 1.29 billion) to finance the 2025/26 harvest.
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Reports of lower bean density in Brazil despite large screen size, reducing crop estimates.
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European roasters stockpiling ahead of the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline in December 2025.
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A minor frost in Brazil damaging up to half a million bags.
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Roasters increasing long positions in futures markets to hedge against further price hikes.
Export Downturn
The ICO report also showed global green coffee exports reaching 10.3 million bags in July 2025, down 0.7% from July 2024. South America posted the steepest decline (-18.5%), driven by Brazil’s 28.6% fall in shipments.
Regional Contrasts
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Asia & Oceania exports surged by 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).
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Africa’s exports rose 4.4%, with Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%) as key contributors.
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Mexico & Central America posted a moderate increase of 7.2%.
Looking Ahead
The ICO emphasized that the combination of rising prices and falling exports places the global coffee market in a volatile phase. With the EUDR coming into effect by year-end and climate-related risks looming over major producers, coffee is set to remain one of the most vulnerable agricultural commodities to both economic and environmental shocks.
