The Cocoa Paradox: How Global Shocks and Dubai’s Trade Ambitions Are Reshaping a $26 Billion Industry
Dubai – Qahwa World
The global cocoa industry — long synonymous with indulgence and luxury — is undergoing a historic transformation. A sharp supply crunch, climate disruptions, and tightening regulations have exposed deep structural weaknesses in one of the world’s most beloved commodities. Yet, amid the volatility, new opportunities for diversification, innovation, and fairer value distribution are emerging — with Dubai positioning itself as a strategic bridge between producers and consumers in the new era of cocoa trade.
The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) has released a comprehensive report titled “The Future of Trade – Special Cocoa Edition,” part of its Agri Commodities Series. The report examines the global cocoa market’s critical challenges — from production shortages and price volatility to digital innovation, ethical sourcing, and shifting consumer demand toward wellness and sustainability. This news story is based on the key findings of the DMCC report, one of the most detailed and forward-looking analyses of the cocoa sector and Dubai’s growing role in it.
A Crisis of Supply and Unequal Returns
The global cocoa market is valued at around US$16.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$26.2 billion by 2035. However, behind this growth lies a deep imbalance. The 2023/24 crop year recorded one of the steepest production declines in decades — down 13% to 4.4 million tonnes — resulting in a deficit of nearly half a million tonnes and pushing prices to record highs. Cocoa grindings also fell by 5% to 4.8 million tonnes, according to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
The roots of the crisis lie in West Africa, which produces over 60% of the world’s cocoa from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Devastating outbreaks of black pod and swollen shoot disease, erratic rainfall, and ageing trees have crippled production. Ghana’s regulator has already warned that output could drop another 10% in the 2025/26 season.
“Our cocoa plantations are ageing and have suffered from years of underinvestment,” says Kwadwo Boachie-Adjei, founder of Kumbi Cocoa. “Farmers lack access to quality fertilizers and seedlings because the financial resources needed to reinvest in their communities have not been flowing back at the scale required. The cycle of low productivity and limited incomes must change.”
Despite record-high international prices, farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire still receive fixed farmgate rates set by governments — too low to cover replanting or disease control. “For every one-dollar chocolate bar, farmers receive just two cents,” notes Mauro Danilo Ribezzi, founder of the Ribezzi Group. “The economics of cocoa are fragile — people will simply walk away.”
Meanwhile, processors and brands are struggling with soaring energy, transport, and financing costs. Companies are resorting to shrinkflation and reformulation: Mars Inc. cut 10 grams from its Galaxy bar, while Nestlé dropped the word “chocolate” from some UK products that now fall below the 20% cocoa-content threshold.
Although chocolate still dominates around 85% of cocoa demand, consumer preferences are shifting toward functional, ethical, and health-oriented products. The premium chocolate market is projected to grow from US$31.9 billion in 2024 to US$40.6 billion by 2030, while demand for raw cacao — marketed as a superfood rich in antioxidants — is forecast to surge from US$14.3 billion in 2024 to US$23.6 billion by 2033. Cocoa butter, a staple in cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, is set to nearly double in value to US$9.37 billion by 2032.
At the same time, the industry faces new compliance pressures. The European Union’s Deforestation-Free Products Regulation and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive require companies to prove that their cocoa is not sourced from deforested areas and that human rights are upheld throughout supply chains. Cocoa cultivation has caused over 37% forest loss in Côte d’Ivoire’s protected areas and 13% in Ghana, making traceability and digital monitoring essential for market access and premium pricing.
Dubai: A New Global Nexus for Cocoa Trade
Amid these structural pressures, Dubai is emerging as a stabilizing force in global commodity flows. Leveraging its strategic location between Africa, Asia, and Europe, the UAE has built a resilient trade ecosystem capable of absorbing global shocks. According to the DMCC report, the UAE imported US$17.3 million worth of cocoa beans in 2023 — 96% of which came from Côte d’Ivoire — and exported US$16.4 million, mainly to Iran, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia. While modest compared to European hubs, these figures highlight Dubai’s growing relevance in both upstream and downstream cocoa trade.
Building on the success of the DMCC Coffee Centre and Tea Centre, Dubai is now planning to launch a DMCC Cacao Centre that will offer integrated services including grading, blending, storage, branding, and structured trade finance — all under one roof. The initiative aims to transform Dubai into a full-service hub for cocoa trade and value addition in the Middle East.
“The DMCC provides African producers with what they have long lacked — direct access to markets and capital,” says Boachie-Adjei.
“The beauty of the DMCC ecosystem,” adds Ribezzi, “is that we don’t just operate as traders but as facilitators connecting farmers, financiers, and buyers across borders.”
The report also underscores how technology is redefining cocoa trade. Blockchain-enabled traceability ensures regulatory compliance and transparency, while mobile-first fintech platforms allow farmers to receive payments directly — cutting out intermediaries and ensuring faster, fairer compensation. Emerging models such as tokenized assets and decentralized finance (DeFi) could soon unlock new credit channels for smallholders historically excluded from the banking system.
Looking further ahead, the industry is experimenting with lab-grown cocoa to overcome climate and disease risks. Startups are cultivating cocoa cells that yield mass without farms, a concept already supported by major players such as Barry Callebaut and Japan’s Meiji. Other innovators are developing cocoa-free chocolate alternatives using ingredients like carob and upcycled fibers to reduce dependency on volatile bean supply. Meanwhile, West African research programs are advancing disease-resistant and high-yield varieties through genetic innovation and agroforestry models.
The DMCC report concludes that the future of cocoa rests on five pillars: climate-adapted farming, transparent supply chains, diversified production, financial innovation, and equitable participation. It calls for producer nations to move beyond being raw suppliers and instead become true partners in global value creation.
With its neutral trade infrastructure and forward-looking policies, Dubai is poised to redefine the cocoa economy — shifting it from a system marked by inequality and volatility to one built on sustainability, inclusivity, and shared prosperity.
