Roasted and Soluble Coffee Exports Decline in July 2025
Dubai, September 6, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August 2025 report has revealed a significant decline in exports of both roasted and soluble coffee in July, underscoring new challenges facing the global coffee sector as it navigates volatile prices, shifting demand, and rising production costs. The data highlights not only pressure on green coffee but also on finished products that reach consumers directly, raising concerns about structural changes in the industry.
According to the report, roasted coffee exports fell by a dramatic 63%, reaching only 30,000 bags compared to 81,000 bags in July 2024. This steep contraction marks one of the sharpest drops in recent years for a category that reflects direct consumer demand for value-added coffee products. Soluble coffee exports also registered a decline, albeit more modest, down 5% to 1.08 million bags from 1.13 million bags a year earlier. While less severe, the slowdown in soluble exports is significant because this category has long been considered one of the most resilient and widely consumed segments in global markets, particularly in emerging economies.
Analysts attribute the decline in roasted coffee exports to several interlinked factors. The most immediate is the surge in global coffee prices, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbing by 14.6% in August to 297.05 US cents per pound, its highest level since 2024. Such historic price levels have curbed demand for high-cost roasted products, especially in advanced markets such as Europe and North America, where consumers are already grappling with inflation and higher living expenses. At the same time, exporters face mounting challenges from rising production and shipping costs. Energy, labor, and logistics expenses have all increased in recent months, eroding margins and forcing some companies to scale back international shipments in favor of local markets where conditions are more stable.
For soluble coffee, the 5% drop highlights a different dynamic. Traditionally, this segment has thrived in developing and price-sensitive markets due to its affordability and convenience. Yet even here, demand appears to be shifting. In mature markets, growth has slowed as consumers gravitate toward specialty coffee and fresh roasted options, reflecting a broader trend toward quality and experience rather than convenience alone. In competitive producing countries such as Vietnam and India, rising production capacity has intensified rivalry, putting pressure on exporters to maintain prices and market share. Younger generations in many countries are also seeking more diverse coffee experiences, leading to gradual erosion in the dominance of instant coffee.
The decline in both roasted and soluble exports has broader economic implications. It signals that pressure in the coffee sector is not limited to green coffee or raw supply but extends throughout the value chain. Combined with the ICO’s data showing global coffee stocks at their lowest level since April 2024, the contraction in finished product exports adds another layer of vulnerability to a market already characterized by price volatility and supply uncertainty. Experts warn that if these trends persist, the industry could face an extended period of turbulence, with higher prices for consumers and tighter margins for producers.
Still, opportunities remain in certain regions. Demand for soluble coffee continues to expand in parts of Africa and Asia, albeit at a slower pace, offering some relief for exporters. However, regulatory challenges such as the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to take effect at the end of 2025, are expected to add new hurdles for suppliers attempting to maintain access to key European markets. For roasted coffee, niche segments such as specialty blends and locally branded products may offer pathways to sustain growth, but producers will need to adapt quickly to changing consumer preferences.
The ICO emphasized that roasted and soluble coffee exports should be monitored closely as indicators of global consumption trends. If the declines seen in July extend over the coming months, it could mark the beginning of a deeper shift in how coffee is traded and consumed worldwide. In that scenario, volume alone would no longer be the main metric of success; value-added innovation, consumer engagement, and adaptability to regulatory and market changes would become critical to survival. For now, the combined 63% plunge in roasted coffee exports and the 5% drop in soluble shipments serve as a stark reminder that the challenges facing the coffee sector go beyond farms and warehouses and reach all the way to the consumer’s cup.
