Dubai, August 27, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Arabica coffee futures fell on Tuesday as pressure from Brazil’s near-complete harvest weighed on the market, while robusta prices gained on tightening supply signals. On the ICE exchange, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.44% at -5.45, while November robusta (RMU25) climbed 0.86% (+40). The divergence reflects the complex forces shaping global coffee markets at the end of August.
Brazil’s influential Cooxupé cooperative announced that as of August 22, its members had completed 91.3% of their 2025/26 harvest, signaling an abundant flow of fresh beans into the market. Independent consultancy Safras & Mercado reported even higher progress, noting 99% of Brazil’s harvest complete, including 100% of robusta and 98% of arabica. Such rapid progress has increased selling pressure, pushing arabica futures lower despite ongoing concerns about weather damage in Minas Gerais, the country’s top arabica-growing region. Somar Meteorologia reported no rainfall in the week ending August 23, following frost damage earlier in the month.
Counterbalancing the harvest pressure, exchange-monitored stocks remain tight. ICE arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 717,113 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a one-month low of 6,614 lots, underpinning prices. Additional upward pressure stems from U.S. market disruptions, where buyers are canceling contracts for Brazilian coffee following the imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports. With Brazil supplying nearly one-third of unroasted beans to the U.S., the restrictions are tightening American supplies.
Brazil’s July export data highlighted another bullish element. The Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in unroasted coffee exports to 161,000 metric tons. Exporter group Cecafé confirmed the trend, citing a 28% fall in green coffee exports to 2.4 million bags. Arabica shipments dropped 21%, while robusta exports plunged 49% compared to July 2024. For the first seven months of 2025, Cecafé recorded a 21% decline in Brazil’s overall coffee exports, totaling 22.2 million bags.
Global indicators, however, showed a mixed picture. The International Coffee Organization reported that global June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year, reaching 11.69 million bags, although October–June cumulative exports slipped slightly by 0.2%. In Vietnam, drought weighed heavily on 2023/24 production, which fell 20% to 1.47 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years. Exports also slumped 17% in 2024, though this year’s January–July shipments rose 6.9%.
Looking ahead, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects record global coffee production in 2025/26 at 178.68 million bags, led by a 7.9% increase in robusta output. Arabica production, however, is expected to decline by 1.7% to 97 million bags. Despite this, traders remain cautious, as Volcafé forecasts an arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortfalls, compared with a 5.5 million bag deficit in the current cycle.
