Arabica Coffee Hits 2-Week High Amid Crop Concerns in Brazil
Arabica coffee prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday, supported by mounting concerns over weather conditions in Brazil that could hurt the country’s upcoming harvest. The May arabica futures contract rose by 0.28% to close at +1.10 points, while May robusta coffee futures fell by 0.55%, down 30 points.
Weather remains a key factor. Brazil’s main arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received just 30.8 mm of rain during the week ending March 15—only 71% of the historical average, according to Somar Meteorologia. Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest arabica cooperative, also warned that high temperatures and below-average rainfall in February could negatively affect this year’s yields.
While arabica prices gained, robusta coffee reversed early gains and declined following a build-up in exchange-monitored inventories, which rose to a 1.5-week high of 4,336 lots on Wednesday. In contrast, ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a one-month low of 782,489 bags.
Ongoing supply concerns are keeping arabica prices elevated. Brazil’s green coffee exports in February dropped by 12% year-on-year to 3 million bags, according to Cecafé. Additionally, Brazil’s crop agency Conab projects the 2025/26 coffee harvest to fall by 4.4% year-on-year to 51.81 million bags — the lowest level in three years. Conab also trimmed its estimate for the 2024 crop to 54.2 million bags, down from 54.8 million in September.
Meanwhile, global supply dynamics remain mixed. Marex Solutions projected earlier this month that the global coffee surplus will grow to 1.2 million bags in 2025/26, up from 200,000 bags in 2024/25 — a bearish outlook for prices.
Vietnam, the world’s top robusta producer, reported a 6.6% year-on-year rise in February coffee exports to 169,000 metric tons, according to its General Statistics Office. However, the country continues to face production setbacks. Due to drought conditions, Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee output dropped 20% to a four-year low of 1.472 million metric tons. The USDA expects 2024/25 production to decline slightly to 27.9 million bags. In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association revised down its 2024/25 production estimate to 26.5 million bags from the earlier forecast of 28 million.
Despite a record 28.8% increase in Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports to 50.5 million bags, global figures show mixed trends. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports fell 12.4% year-on-year in December to 10.73 million bags, with total exports for October–December 2024 down 0.8% year-on-year to 32.25 million bags.
The USDA’s December 2024 report presented a mixed outlook. Global coffee production is expected to rise by 4% to 174.855 million bags in 2024/25, with arabica output increasing by 1.5% and robusta by 7.5%. However, global ending stocks are forecast to fall by 6.6% to 20.867 million bags — the lowest level in 25 years.
Looking ahead, Volcafe recently slashed its 2025/26 forecast for Brazil’s arabica crop to 34.4 million bags, citing extended drought damage — down by 11 million bags from earlier estimates. The firm projects a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 season, widening from the 5.5 million deficit in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortfalls.
