Arabica Coffee Trades Higher on Below-Average Rain in Brazil

Arabica Coffee Trades Higher on Below-Average Rain in Brazil

Arabica coffee prices are seeing support today from below-average rain in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee. March arabica coffee (KCH25) is up +2.85 (+0.88%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF25) is down -10 (-0.20%).

Somar Meteorologia reported today that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing region, received 43.6 mm of rain last week, which is only 83% of the historical average. The persistent dry conditions in this crucial region continue to weigh on production forecasts.

Coffee prices showed mixed trends on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar. However, today’s decline in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) by -1.2% has added bearish pressure on prices. A weaker real typically incentivizes Brazilian coffee producers to increase exports, which can weigh on global coffee prices.

Adding to the bearish factors, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories climbed to a 2.5-year high of 985,990 bags last Friday. Similarly, robusta coffee inventories rose to a two-month high of 3,996 lots, rebounding from a 7.5-month low of 3,672 lots earlier in the week.

The outlook for Brazil’s coffee crop remains a significant driver of market sentiment. Last Friday, consultancy group Safras & Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop at 62.45 million bags, down 5% year-on-year. The drop is attributed to drought conditions, with arabica output projected to fall 15% to 38.35 million bags.

Last Tuesday, Volcafe slashed its estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica production to 34.4 million bags, a sharp reduction of 11 million bags from its September forecast. This adjustment came after a crop tour revealed the severe impact of prolonged drought during Brazil’s critical flowering stage. Volcafe also projected a global arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26, widening from the 5.5 million bag deficit in 2024/25, marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits.

The USDA’s bi-annual coffee report released last Wednesday offered mixed implications for the market. The Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected global coffee production for 2024/25 to rise by 4% year-on-year to 174.855 million bags. Arabica production is expected to grow 1.5% to 97.845 million bags, while robusta production is forecasted to increase by 7.5% to 77.01 million bags.

However, the USDA also forecasted a significant tightening of ending stocks, projecting a decline of 6.6% year-on-year to a 24-year low of 20.867 million bags. The FAS also revised Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production to 66.4 million metric tons, down from its previous forecast of 69.9 million metric tons. Ending inventories in Brazil are expected to fall 26% year-on-year to 1.2 million bags by June 2025.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by supply concerns in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. The Vietnam General Department of Customs reported last Wednesday that November coffee exports plunged 47% year-on-year to 63,019 metric tons. Year-to-date exports through November were down 14% to 1.22 million metric tons. Heavy rains in Vietnam delayed harvesting, contributing to the reduced export figures.

Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year dropped 20% to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought, marking the smallest crop in four years. The USDA FAS projects Vietnam’s robusta production for 2024/25 to dip slightly to 27.9 million bags, down from 28 million bags in the previous season. Conversely, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association recently raised its 2024/25 production estimate to 28 million bags, up from its October forecast of 27 million bags.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently reported a 15.1% year-on-year rise in global coffee exports for October 2024, marking a strong start to the 2024/25 season with shipments totaling 11.13 million bags. For the 2023/24 season, global exports rose 11.7% year-on-year to 137.27 million bags.

Brazil also set a record for green coffee exports in the 2023/24 season, shipping 47.3 million bags, a 33% increase year-on-year, according to Cecafe. However, the ICO warned that global coffee production for 2023/24 climbed 5.8% year-on-year to a record 178 million bags, while consumption grew only 2.2% to 177 million bags, resulting in a surplus of 1 million bags.

The dry weather induced by El Nino earlier this year may have lasting effects on coffee crops in South and Central America. Brazil has experienced below-average rainfall since April, damaging coffee trees during the crucial flowering stage for the 2025/26 crop. According to Brazil’s natural disaster monitoring center, Cemaden, the country is enduring its driest conditions since 1981.

Colombia, the second-largest arabica producer, continues to recover from drought conditions earlier this year, further adding to the complexity of the global coffee supply outlook.

As the market approaches the new year, the interplay between adverse weather, fluctuating inventories, and shifting production estimates will remain central to shaping coffee prices.

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. 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At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

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Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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