Brazil’s Coffee Stockpiles Plummet as Prices Reach Record Highs
Brazil’s coffee reserves have hit historic lows as farmers sell off nearly all of their 2024 crop amid soaring global prices and prolonged drought. The depletion of stockpiles is raising concerns for roasters, who are struggling to secure supply while coffee prices continue to surge.
The coffee warehouses of Brazil, once packed with millions of bags of beans, are now largely empty. In what experts describe as an unprecedented situation, farmers have already sold most of their 2024 crop, months before the next harvest, as coffee prices skyrocket to all-time highs.
A severe drought and high international demand have driven prices to historic levels, nearly doubling over the past 14 months. Arabica coffee, the dominant variety used in ground-roasted blends, surged by 70% in 2024 and another 20% in early 2025, reaching $4.30 per pound in mid-February. Robusta, often used in instant coffee, climbed 72% last year and peaked at $5,847 per metric ton in February.
With global coffee consumption expected to exceed production for the fourth time in six years, the market remains under pressure.
Supply Crisis Looms as Stockpiles Run Dry
In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, the impact of tight supplies is being felt across the industry. Many of the country’s top cooperatives report record-low stock levels.
“We have never seen inventories this low at this time of the year,” said Willian Cesar Freiria, sales manager at Cocapec, one of Brazil’s largest coffee cooperatives. The organization, based in Franca, São Paulo state, received only 1.1 million bags from associated farmers in 2024, down from 1.5 million bags in 2023. “Until the next harvest begins, there won’t be much coffee left to sell—and it’s the same situation everywhere,” Freiria added.
Even at Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, where warehouses still appear full, nearly all the stored coffee has already been sold. “Most of the beans in storage are awaiting shipment,” said Andre Silva Pinto, Cooxupe’s storage coordinator.
According to Cooxupe sales superintendent Luiz Fernando dos Reis, coffee farmers have already sold 90% of their 2024 crop, leaving the lowest inventory levels on record. Industry data supports this claim, with consultancy Safras & Mercado estimating that 88% of the crop has been sold, while brokerage firm Pine Agronegocios reports only 8% remains.
Market Uncertainty as New Harvest Approaches
With exports reducing stockpiles, warehouses are expected to be nearly empty by May, while the next harvest is not expected to begin until late May or June. The first shipments of new-crop coffee will likely not be available until July, further straining the supply chain.
Some farmers, however, have chosen to hold onto part of their 2024 harvest as a precaution. Paulo Armelin, a grower in the Cerrado Mineiro region, kept 40% of his crop as a reserve. “I anticipate a smaller yield this year, so I decided to hold on to some of last year’s beans,” he said.
Meanwhile, negotiations between farmers and international buyers reflect the impact of rising prices. Armelin is currently in talks with a San Francisco-based roaster, seeking $4.50 per pound for his beans—significantly higher than the $3.05 he charged last year.
However, some industry leaders caution that maintaining such high prices may prove challenging. Luis Norberto Pascoal, owner of Daterra Coffees, a prominent arabica producer, believes many roasters will struggle to afford current rates. “Many will be forced to cut costs, which could ultimately impact quality,” he said.
With global demand remaining strong and supply constraints intensifying, the coffee market faces a period of continued volatility.
