Coffee at Risk: U.S. Tariffs on Vietnam Threaten Higher Prices

The U.S. coffee market is bracing for potential price hikes following Washington’s decision to impose a 46% tariff on coffee imports from Vietnam — the world’s largest producer of robusta beans, which are widely used in instant coffee and low-cost espresso blends.

The new trade measure is expected to intensify existing supply chain pressures, as global coffee markets already grapple with tight inventories and rising costs. Robusta futures in London have surged by more than 40% over the past year, while arabica prices in New York remain high due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries.

According to Priyanka Sakdeva, a senior analyst at Phillip Nova, the newly imposed tariffs will likely worsen market volatility and deepen the robusta supply shortage. She emphasized that the impact will be particularly felt in segments that rely on robusta for affordable coffee products. Replacing robusta with arabica, she noted, is not a viable solution due to the latter’s higher cost and different flavor profile.

Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, expressed shock at the scale of the tariff and voiced serious concern about existing export contracts. He stressed that alternative suppliers such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Côte d’Ivoire would struggle to match both the volume and quality of Vietnamese coffee.

Analysts warn that U.S. importers will now face higher sourcing costs, which could trickle down to consumers through rising retail prices and reduced availability of budget-friendly options in cafés and grocery stores — all at a time when the global coffee industry is already under strain from climate, logistical, and economic challenges.