Ethiopia, the birthplace of Arabica coffee and one of the world’s most iconic producing countries, is expected to maintain a steady output of 4.5 million 60-kg bags in the 2024/25 marketing year, according to the latest report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. This consistent level of production underscores the resilience of Ethiopia’s coffee sector in the face of prolonged drought and changing climate patterns.
Coffee remains the backbone of Ethiopia’s rural economy, providing livelihoods for over 15 million people, mostly smallholder farmers. Despite mounting production challenges, including erratic rainfall and limited irrigation infrastructure, the country has shown remarkable adaptability in sustaining its output at near-record levels. The forecast for 2024/25 matches the previous season’s production, reaffirming Ethiopia’s position as the fifth-largest Arabica producer globally.
Although Ethiopia experienced below-average rainfall during the last growing season, particularly in southern coffee-growing areas like Sidama and Yirgacheffe, production was largely preserved due to the enduring strength of its traditional agroforestry systems. The use of shade trees, minimal chemical inputs, and intercropping techniques not only sustains the environment but also helps maintain coffee yields even under climatic stress.
Additionally, while high global coffee prices in early 2024 initially encouraged expansion, smallholders were later discouraged by input costs and unstable weather. However, there is growing interest in drought-resistant coffee varieties, and government-led agricultural extension programs are helping producers cope with environmental stressors.
Ethiopia’s coffee exports are projected to reach 4.0 million bags in 2024/25, slightly up from 3.98 million bags in the previous season. The country remains one of the few major producers that exports both washed (wet-processed) and unwashed (natural) coffee at scale. In value terms, coffee exports continue to be the largest foreign exchange earner for the country, with Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Japan, and South Korea among the top destinations.
Ethiopian coffee is internationally prized for its unique cup profiles — ranging from floral and citrusy to fruity and wine-like — especially from regions like Guji, Limu, and Harrar. These differentiated flavor profiles allow Ethiopian exporters to target both premium specialty markets and volume-based buyers.
Despite volatile international prices and recent currency fluctuations, the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) is working with local cooperatives to improve traceability, quality control, and market access for smallholder producers. The country has also expanded its participation in international coffee fairs, with positive reception at events like the Specialty Coffee Expo in Chicago.
While exports dominate the coffee sector, domestic consumption is also rising steadily, estimated at 534,000 bags in 2024/25. Coffee drinking is deeply woven into Ethiopian social and cultural life, with the traditional coffee ceremony remaining a vital ritual across urban and rural households.
Urban demand for roasted and ground coffee is also growing, fueled by the expansion of modern retail outlets, local roasteries, and coffee chains in Addis Ababa and other major cities. This growing internal market provides some insulation for farmers from international price shocks.
Looking ahead, Ethiopia’s coffee sector faces several critical challenges. The continued depreciation of the Ethiopian birr, high transportation costs, and limited access to finance for smallholders and exporters are among the top concerns.
Moreover, climate volatility remains a long-term threat. While Ethiopia’s traditional production systems have helped mitigate recent drought impacts, more investment is needed in research, extension services, and infrastructure to prepare for future climate events.
There are also increasing concerns about regulatory fragmentation and the pace of implementation of the country’s coffee reform agenda. Some private exporters have expressed frustration over bureaucratic hurdles and a lack of transparency in the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX), although the government is gradually allowing direct export channels for specialty coffee under the new vertical integration model.
Despite its challenges, Ethiopia’s coffee sector stands on a strong foundation of tradition, biodiversity, and quality. The country’s ability to maintain stable production and exports under environmental and economic pressure reflects a deep-rooted resilience that few producing countries can match.
As demand for high-quality, traceable coffee continues to grow globally, Ethiopia is well-positioned to capitalize on its unique heritage — provided it continues to invest in climate adaptation, value chain transparency, and market reforms.