International Coffee Organization: Sharp Decline in Global Coffee Prices and Rise in Robusta Exports

International Coffee Organization: Sharp Decline in Global Coffee Prices and Rise in Robusta Exports

The global coffee market witnessed a notable downturn in June 2025, as the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) dropped below the 300 US cents/lb threshold for the first time since December 2024. According to the latest Coffee Market Report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the average I-CIP in June fell to 295.06 US cents/lb, representing an 11.8% decrease from May.

This price decline was largely driven by increased supply pressures, including expectations of a surplus for the 2025/26 coffee year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a surplus of 9.32 million bags, following another 7.88 million bag surplus in 2024/25. Additionally, certified stocks of Arabica coffee rose to a nine-month high of 1.85 million bags in May before slightly easing to 1.78 million by the end of June.

Market Breakdown by Variety

All major coffee groups saw price reductions:

  • Colombian Milds fell by 9.0% to 360.08 US cents/lb

  • Other Milds dropped 8.7% to 363.16 US cents/lb

  • Brazilian Naturals declined by 10.9% to 338.53 US cents/lb

  • Robustas experienced the sharpest fall, down 17.5% to 196.21 US cents/lb, dipping below 200 US cents/lb for the first time since January 2024.

On futures markets, London prices sank by 18.4% to 183.21 US cents/lb, while New York prices dropped 10.5% to 329.56 US cents/lb.

Differentials and Volatility

  • The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential continued to shrink, reaching -3.08 US cents/lb, while the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential rose to 163.86 US cents/lb.

  • Arbitrage between New York and London widened to 146.35 US cents/lb, up 1.9% from May.

  • Volatility across the board declined. The I-CIP’s intra-day volatility averaged 10.2%, down from 11.1% in May. Robusta volatility also dropped, from 11.5% to 10.2%.

Brief Rally Triggered by Frost Concerns

Prices briefly rallied on 23 June due to reports of frost in Brazil’s main coffee-producing regions, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. The I-CIP surged by 3.6% to 288.8 US cents/lb. However, subsequent weather updates mitigated frost fears and halted the rally.

Green Coffee Exports: Robustas Lead the Growth

Global green bean exports in May 2025 reached 11.2 million bags, up 3.5% compared to the same month last year. However, total exports for the coffee year (October–May) were down 3.1% to 81.97 million bags.

  • Robusta exports soared 20.1% to 4.31 million bags, driven by Vietnam (+87.3%), Indonesia (+381.6%), and Uganda (+45.9%).

  • Brazilian Naturals dropped 11.2% to 3.29 million bags, mainly due to Brazil’s cyclical downturn.

  • Colombian Milds fell 3.0%, with Colombia’s exports dropping for the second consecutive month.

  • Other Milds rose 4.2%, supported by strong shipments from Ethiopia and Nicaragua.

Arabicas accounted for 62.9% of total green bean exports in the first eight months of 2024/25, up from 60.8% the previous year.

Regional Export Trends: Asia and Africa Expand, South America Contracts

In May 2025, total exports of all coffee forms rose 4.9% to 12.65 million bags, but year-to-date totals remained 2.3% lower than last year at 91.29 million bags.

  • Asia & Oceania: +48.9% to 4.11 million bags, led by Vietnam and Indonesia.

  • Africa: +33.3% to 2.33 million bags, with Ethiopia and Uganda as primary contributors.

  • Mexico & Central America: +3.8% to 2.13 million bags, boosted by Nicaragua’s 60.8% export rise.

  • South America: -25.7% to 4.08 million bags, driven by a sharp 31.8% drop in Brazil’s exports after a record 50.1 million bags shipped in 2023/24.

Soluble and Roasted Coffee Exports

  • Soluble coffee exports rose 15.4% to 1.33 million bags in May, with Brazil shipping 0.37 million of that total.

  • Roasted coffee exports jumped 46.8% to 0.12 million bags.

Soluble coffee’s share of total exports increased to 10.5% for October 2024–May 2025, up from 9.6% in the previous year.

Stocks and Storage

Certified stocks on the New York exchange declined slightly to 0.91 million 60-kg bags in June, while London stocks of Robusta coffee dropped 4.9% to 0.87 million bags.

Conclusion: Supply Pressures Dominate Outlook

June’s market retreat reinforces the dominance of supply-side factors in shaping global coffee prices. With high certified stocks, robust Robusta exports, and surplus forecasts from USDA, bearish pressure may continue unless major weather disruptions materialize. However, the brief spike triggered by frost concerns in Brazil signals that weather volatility still holds the power to jolt markets in the short term.

As the 2024/25 coffee year progresses, all eyes will remain on Brazil’s harvest, Vietnam’s shipping trends, and evolving consumer demand amid shifting price dynamics.

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