Mexico Targets 3.9 Million Bags of Coffee in 2025/2026 Amid Rising Prices and Domestic Demand Growth

• Mexico’s coffee output is forecast to reach 3.9 million bags in 2025/2026, driven by high prices and renewed investment. Exports and consumption rise, but challenges remain in labor and farm renovation.

According to the Coffee Annual Report – Mexico 2025/2026, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 20, 2025, Mexico’s coffee production is projected to reach 3.9 million bags (green bean equivalent) in the upcoming season. This slight increase over the previous year is fueled by strong international prices, targeted government support, and sustained efforts to renovate plantations and promote coffee quality.

Production is concentrated in four states—Chiapas, Veracruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca—which together account for over 91% of the national output. Chiapas remains the leading state by volume, while Puebla continues to post the highest productivity levels, thanks to favorable agro-climatic conditions, investment in disease-resistant varieties, and proximity to urban infrastructure.

Arabica coffee dominates production with 3.5 million bags, while robusta output is forecast to decline slightly, especially in lowland Veracruz, which was hit by heatwaves between June and October 2024. The national average yield stands at 5.89 GBE/ha, with Veracruz and Puebla reporting much higher averages of 7.04 and 12.22 GBE/ha, respectively.

Although planted and harvested areas remain relatively stable across Mexico’s 14 coffee-growing states, factors like labor shortages, input costs, climate variability, and pests continue to affect year-to-year output. Labor challenges are particularly acute in Chiapas, where restrictions on migrant workers—especially from Guatemala—and competition from higher-paying industries like tourism have limited workforce availability. Rising costs across transportation, fertilizer, and fuel further strain profitability.

Despite these obstacles, Mexico’s domestic consumption is expected to grow modestly to 3.15 million bags, a 1.6% increase from the previous year. The demand for roasted coffee is driving this growth, with urban areas showing increased interest in single-origin and premium varieties. Soluble coffee still dominates the market, accounting for 57% of total consumption, but the specialty segment is expanding steadily.

A notable development in 2024 was the launch of Café Bienestar, a government-backed instant coffee brand distributed through over 24,000 Bienestar stores across Mexico. The program aims to provide affordable coffee while supporting small producers, especially in northern Veracruz. Though the brand currently represents a small share of the soluble market, it plays a key social role by increasing access to coffee in underserved communities.

Mexico’s coffee exports are projected to rise to 3.05 million bags in 2025/2026, including 1.6 million bags of soluble coffee. The United States remains the top buyer of Mexican coffee in all forms—green, roasted, and soluble. Export volumes are seasonally highest between April and May, and recent revisions have shown stronger-than-expected shipments of soluble products.

At the same time, coffee imports are expected to increase to 2.39 million bags, mostly driven by robusta imports used in blending and soluble manufacturing. Brazil remains the leading supplier of green and soluble imports, while the United States dominates roasted coffee imports.

Regulatory dynamics are shaping consumption trends. In March 2025, Mexico enacted the Healthy Life in Schools Law, which bans the sale of caffeinated beverages in primary and middle schools. While this may reduce early-age exposure to coffee, the law allows unsweetened coffee consumption in higher education institutions, potentially strengthening coffee habits among university students.

Meanwhile, the government continues to promote domestic coffee through programs such as “Ask for a Mexican Coffee,” encouraging agrotourism in Chiapas, Veracruz, and Puebla. Competitions like Expo Café, Cup of Excellence, and regional events like Expo Orgullo de Puebla play a critical role in boosting national appreciation for Mexican-grown coffee and connecting producers with buyers and consumers.

Private and NGO partnerships are also revitalizing the sector. Programs by Nestlé, Starbucks, Sabormex, BASF, and Solidaridad focus on distributing rust-resistant plants, offering agronomic training, soil analysis, and creating new business models through youth engagement. Starbucks alone has donated over 4.8 million seedlings and operates a Farmer Support Center in Chiapas. These efforts are complemented by partnerships with universities, co-ops, and international donors.

Policy-wise, Mexico is consolidating coffee support programs under the Cosechando Soberanía en Café initiative. In 2024, over 205,000 producers received direct support payments totaling nearly US $75 million. Fertilizer subsidies and certified seed distribution are also part of a broader 2026–2030 strategic plan aimed at stabilizing productivity, improving plant health, and expanding exports to Eastern Europe and Asia.

At the global level, price volatility remains a central factor. In April 2025, coffee prices fluctuated between 308 and 340 US cents per pound, driven by supply disruptions in Brazil, rising global demand, and potential tariffs. The tight global supply, combined with increased investment by Mexican farmers, has temporarily boosted margins, but the long-term outlook depends on whether global supply growth corrects prices in the coming seasons.

As Mexico enters the 2025/2026 marketing year, the coffee sector finds itself in a cautiously optimistic position. Strong prices, rising demand, and quality-driven initiatives are supporting producers and exporters alike, but risks tied to climate, regulation, and cost must be carefully managed to maintain momentum.