According to a recent report by Fox News, coffee prices in the United States have surged to record levels as a result of severe disruptions in global supply chains, adverse weather in major producing countries, and rising international demand. In February 2025, the average retail price of ground roast coffee rose to $7.25 per pound—the highest ever recorded, based on official government data.

The spike follows a dramatic increase in wholesale arabica prices, which hit $4.30 per pound on the New York futures market—double the rate from the previous year. Coffee roasters that typically rely on futures markets to manage costs are now facing tighter margins, prompting concerns that the added burden will soon fall on consumers.

“We want to make sure that we are able to pass along cost changes both up and down, and we do intend to do that,” said Mark Smucker, CEO of J.M. Smucker, during a recent earnings call.

Key coffee-exporting nations have been hit hard by extreme weather conditions. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports declined by 11.3% in December 2024, following a season marked by droughts and frost. Vietnam saw an even steeper drop, with a 39.5% reduction in exports after enduring an unseasonal drought in October.

Asia and Oceania experienced similar setbacks, with total coffee exports from the region down 31.2% in 2024, according to the ICO.

Compounding the issue are geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks. Heightened conflict in the Red Sea region has disrupted a crucial shipping route that handles roughly 30% of global container traffic, according to the World Bank. Delays and added shipping costs through the Suez Canal have further strained coffee trade flows, especially from Asia.

At the same time, growing demand from emerging markets is intensifying supply pressures. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that China will purchase a record 6.3 million bags of coffee by the end of 2025, a new milestone for the world’s most populous nation.

Smucker added that much of the current volatility in coffee pricing is driven by speculation, noting, “As we get into the harvest, we will have more intel in terms of what that looks like.”

With multiple global factors converging, analysts say coffee prices are likely to remain elevated through the year, with limited room for relief in the near term.