Отчет о рынке кофе: май 2024 года  Мировые цены на кофе демонстрируют волатильность на фоне динамических рыночных сил

Отчет о рынке кофе: май 2024 года Мировые цены на кофе демонстрируют волатильность на фоне динамических рыночных сил

В мае 2024 года рынок кофе продемонстрировал значительную волатильность, вызванную сочетанием экономических, экологических и логистических факторов. Последний отчет от DRWakefield, известной независимой торговой компании в области кофе, предоставляет глубокий анализ этих событий, предлагая инсайты для трейдеров, производителей и любителей кофе.

DRWakefield была основана в Лондоне в 1970 году Дерриком Уэйкфилдом, отцом нынешнего владельца Саймона Уэйкфилда. Компания завоевала репутацию поставщика как специализированного, так и обычного кофе для разнообразных клиентов, от небольших частных обжарщиков до крупных многонациональных компаний. Компания продолжает работу под руководством Саймона Уэйкфилда и сохраняет свою философию построения прочных отношений и понимания потребностей клиентов. С офисами в Лондоне и Вильнюсе и европейскими складами, DRWakefield остается верной своему обязательству предоставлять нужный кофе своим глобальным клиентам.

Рыночные движения и спекуляции

Май ознаменовался смешанными настроениями на рынке кофе, с чередованием бычьих и медвежьих тенденций. В начале месяца преобладали бычьи настроения благодаря ожиданиям возможного дефицита поставок из-за различных глобальных факторов. Однако эти настроения ослабли по мере продвижения месяца:

  • Бычьи настроения: Начальный энтузиазм на рынке был вызван опасениями по поводу возможного дефицита поставок из ключевых регионов производства кофе, усугубленными экологическими проблемами и логистическими задержками. Это привело к росту цен на фьючерсы на кофе.
  • Медвежьи тенденции: По мере увеличения запасов, ожидающих оценки, настроения на рынке изменились. Увеличение количества кофе, ожидающего оценки, что еще не было сертифицировано, указывало на возможное увеличение предложения, что привело к снижению цен и сигнализировало о медвежьих ожиданиях на рынке.

Сертифицированные запасы и динамика предложения

Сертифицированные запасы кофе, которые играют ключевую роль в поддержании стабильности рынка, продемонстрировали значительную волатильность:

  • Снижение сертифицированных запасов: Было отмечено значительное снижение сертифицированных запасов, что отражает высокий спрос и активное изъятие кофе из глобальных складов. Это снижение обычно указывает на уверенность рынка в текущих уровнях предложения, но вызывает обеспокоенность по поводу будущей доступности.
  • Опасения по поводу поставок: Снижение сертифицированных запасов на фоне высокого спотового спроса привело к состоянию контанго на рынке, когда цены на ближайшие месяцы были выше, чем на будущие. Это подчеркивает опасения по поводу немедленных поставок и узость рынка.

Влияние двухгодичных циклов производства

Двухгодичные циклы производства в ключевых регионах выращивания кофе существенно повлияли на стабильность рынка:

  • Увеличение производства и корректировка рынка: Кофейные деревья обычно дают большие урожаи через год. Большие урожаи прошлого года привели к ожиданиям снижения производства в этом году, что способствовало волатильности цен по мере того, как трейдеры корректировали свои ожидания.

Технические индикаторы и рыночные настроения

Несколько технических индикаторов предоставили инсайты о рыночных тенденциях и поведении трейдеров:

  • Индекс относительной силы (RSI): Индекс относительной силы указал, что рынок был перекуплен в начале месяца, что означало, что цены выросли слишком быстро. Это было подтверждено последующей корректировкой цен вниз, что указывало на коррекцию рынка.
  • Отчет о позициях трейдеров (COT): Отчет о позициях трейдеров выявил смешанные настроения среди участников рынка. Спекулянты, также известные как «фонды», увеличили свои короткие позиции, ожидая снижения цен, в то время как коммерческие трейдеры хеджировали свои риски, удерживая свои позиции.

Экономические факторы и глобальные влияния

Экономические условия сыграли ключевую роль в формировании рыночной динамики кофе:

  • Индекс потребительских цен (CPI): Рост инфляции, отраженный в индексе потребительских цен, привел к увеличению затрат по всей цепочке поставок кофе. Эти инфляционные давления затронули все, от производственных затрат до транспортных сборов, что сказалось на общих ценах на кофе.
  • Ястребиные денежно-кредитные политики: Основные центральные банки приняли ястребиные денежно-кредитные политики, направленные на сдерживание инфляции, что привело к повышению процентных ставок. Эти политики повлияли на стоимость валют, особенно доллара США, что, в свою очередь, сказалось на международных ценах на кофе.

Логистические и транспортные вызовы

Мировые логистические и транспортные проблемы продолжали усложнять торговлю кофе:

  • Дефицит контейнеров и перегруженность портов: Продолжающийся дефицит контейнеров и перегруженность ключевых портов привели к задержкам и увеличению затрат. Эти логистические вызовы вызвали перебои в цепочке поставок, что способствовало волатильности рынка.
  • Влияние на торговлю кофе: Задержки в транспортировке и увеличение транспортных расходов повлияли на своевременную доставку кофе, что сказалось на спотовых ценах и фьючерсных контрактах.

Прогноз на будущее

Взгляды на будущее предполагают, что рынок кофе останется динамичным, с разнообразными влияниями на ценовые движения и стабильность рынка:

  • Мониторинг сертифицированных запасов: Уровень сертифицированных запасов будет ключевым индикатором здоровья рынка. Трейдеры и заинтересованные стороны должны внимательно следить за изменениями в этих запасах, чтобы оценить условия предложения.
  • Факторы производства и окружающей среды: Двухгодичные циклы производства и экологические условия в ключевых регионах выращивания кофе будут продолжать играть большую роль в формировании рыночной динамики.
  • Экономические и политические изменения: Глобальные экономические условия и денежно-кредитные политики будут влиять на рыночные настроения и стратегии ценообразования. Трейдеры должны быть внимательны к изменениям процентных ставок и инфляционным тенденциям.

В заключение, май 2024 года был месяцем значительной волатильности на рынке кофе, вызванной сложным взаимодействием факторов предложения и спроса, экономических условий и логистических проблем. Трейдерам и заинтересованным сторонам необходимо тщательно navigate these complexities, balancing short-term market movements with long-term considerations to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving coffee market.

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. 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Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

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How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
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Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

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Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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