تراجع أسعار القهوة مع انخفاض الريال البرازيلي وسط مخاوف بشأن الإمدادات العالمية

تراجع أسعار القهوة مع انخفاض الريال البرازيلي وسط مخاوف بشأن الإمدادات العالمية

شهد سوق القهوة في الآونة الأخيرة انخفاضاً ملحوظاً في الأسعار. تراجعت أسعار القهوة العربية لشهر سبتمبر (KCU24) بنسبة -5.15 (-2.25%)، وانخفضت أسعار قهوة الروبوستا لشهر يوليو (RMN24) بنسبة -83 (-1.89%).

المحرك الرئيسي وراء هذا الاتجاه هو ضعف الريال البرازيلي (BRL)، الذي تراجع إلى أدنى مستوى له منذ 19 شهراً مقابل الدولار الأمريكي. هذا الانخفاض في القيمة شجع منتجي القهوة في البرازيل على زيادة مبيعات الصادرات، مما أدى إلى ضغوطات هبوطية على أسعار القهوة.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن التنبؤات التي تشير إلى هطول الأمطار في مناطق زراعة القهوة في البرازيل قد خففت من المخاوف بشأن الجفاف، مما أثر سلباً على أسعار القهوة. في وقت سابق من هذا الأسبوع، ارتفعت أسعار القهوة إلى أعلى مستوياتها منذ أسبوعين بسبب المخاوف من أن الظروف الجافة لفترة طويلة قد تؤثر سلباً على محاصيل القهوة في البرازيل. من الجدير بالذكر أن تقرير شركة “سومار ميتيرولوجيا” أفاد بأن منطقة ميناس جيرايس في البرازيل، التي تنتج حوالي 30% من القهوة العربية في البلاد، لم تتلقى أي أمطار للأسبوع الثالث على التوالي.

الإنتاج العالمي وديناميات السوق

تظل أسعار قهوة الروبوستا مدعومة بالمخاوف بشأن الجفاف الشديد في فيتنام، أحد المنتجين الرئيسيين لحبوب قهوة الروبوستا. توقع تاجر القهوة “فولكافيه” مؤخراً أن محصول قهوة الروبوستا في فيتنام لموسم 2024/25 قد ينخفض إلى 24 مليون كيس، وهو أدنى مستوى له منذ 13 عاماً بسبب ضعف هطول الأمطار الذي تسبب في أضرار لا يمكن إصلاحها للزهور القهوة. على الرغم من العجز المتوقع في الروبوستا العالمي بمقدار 4.6 مليون كيس لموسم 2024/25، فإن هذا يمثل انخفاضاً عن العجز البالغ 9 ملايين كيس في موسم 2023/24، مما يشير إلى السنة الرابعة على التوالي من نقص حبوب الروبوستا.

قدم تقرير نصف سنوي لوزارة الزراعة الأمريكية الأسبوع الماضي توقعات سلبية لأسعار القهوة. توقع التقرير زيادة بنسبة 4.2% في الإنتاج العالمي للقهوة لعام 2024/25، ليصل إلى 176.235 مليون كيس. ويشمل ذلك زيادة بنسبة 4.4% في إنتاج القهوة العربية ليصل إلى 99.855 مليون كيس وزيادة بنسبة 3.9% في إنتاج قهوة الروبوستا ليصل إلى 76.38 مليون كيس. كما يتوقع التقرير ارتفاع المخزون النهائي لعام 2024/25 بنسبة 7.7% ليصل إلى 25.78 مليون كيس من 23.93 مليون كيس في عام 2023/24. تحديداً، يتوقع التقرير زيادة إنتاج القهوة العربية في البرازيل بنسبة 7.3% على أساس سنوي ليصل إلى 48.2 مليون كيس بفضل ارتفاع العوائد وتوسع المساحات المزروعة.

مستويات المخزون واتجاهات التصدير

ارتفاع مخزونات القهوة التي تراقبها هيئة ICE يضيف مزيداً من الضغط النزولي على الأسعار. استعاد مخزون الروبوستا المراقب من قبل هيئة ICE من مستوى منخفض قياسي بلغ 1,958 لوت في 21 فبراير ليصل إلى أعلى مستوى له منذ 11.5 شهراً عند 5,995 لوت يوم الخميس الماضي. وبالمثل، ارتفعت مخزونات القهوة العربية المراقبة من قبل هيئة ICE من أدنى مستوى لها منذ 24 عاماً عند 224,066 كيس في 30 نوفمبر إلى أعلى مستوى لها منذ 16 شهراً عند 842,434 كيس اعتباراً من يوم الثلاثاء.

تظل الإمدادات المحدودة من قهوة الروبوستا من فيتنام، أكبر منتج لحبوب قهوة الروبوستا في العالم، عاملاً إيجابياً. أفادت رابطة القهوة الفيتنامية بأن إنتاج القهوة في فيتنام لموسم 2023/24 سينخفض بنسبة 20% ليصل إلى 1.472 مليون طن متري (MMT) بسبب الجفاف. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، من المتوقع أن تنخفض صادرات القهوة الفيتنامية لعام 2023/24 بنسبة 20% على أساس سنوي لتصل إلى 1.336 مليون طن متري. وأشارت التقارير الأخيرة من إدارة الجمارك الفيتنامية إلى أن صادرات القهوة في مايو انخفضت بنسبة 47% على أساس سنوي لتصل إلى 79,358 طن متري، وهو أدنى مستوى لشهر مايو منذ عام 2009.

أخبار التصدير والاستهلاك العالمي

البيانات الحديثة عن الصادرات أثرت أيضاً على ديناميات السوق. أفاد “سيسافيه” بزيادة بنسبة 90% على أساس سنوي في صادرات القهوة الخضراء في البرازيل لشهر مايو لتصل إلى 4 ملايين كيس. كما أفادت منظمة القهوة العالمية (ICO) بزيادة بنسبة 16.8% على أساس سنوي في صادرات القهوة العالمية لشهر أبريل لتصل إلى 10.24 مليون كيس، مع ارتفاع صادرات القهوة العالمية للفترة من أكتوبر إلى أبريل بنسبة 11.1% على أساس سنوي لتصل إلى 80.99 مليون كيس. رفعت مجموعة المصدرين البرازيلية “كوميكسيم” تقديراتها لصادرات القهوة البرازيلية لعام 2023/24 إلى 44.9 مليون كيس من 41.5 مليون كيس.

تأثير ظاهرة النينو وتوقعات ICO

أثرت ظاهرة النينو الجوية الحالية بشكل إيجابي على أسعار القهوة من خلال جلب الجفاف إلى مناطق زراعة القهوة في فيتنام. ومع ذلك، توقعت المنظمة الدولية للقهوة زيادة بنسبة 5.8% على أساس سنوي في الإنتاج العالمي للقهوة لعام 2023/24 ليصل إلى 178 مليون كيس بسبب سنة محصولية استثنائية. من المتوقع أن يرتفع استهلاك القهوة العالمي بنسبة 2.2% على أساس سنوي ليصل إلى 177 مليون كيس، مما يؤدي إلى فائض قدره 1 مليون كيس.

الخلاصة

تظل التفاعلات بين تقلبات العملة، والظروف الجوية، وتوقعات الإنتاج، ومستويات المخزون تشكل السوق القهوة. مع استمرار ضعف الريال البرازيلي وتغير أنماط الطقس، يجب على الجهات المعنية في صناعة القهوة التنقل عبر هذه التعقيدات لتحسين استراتيجياتها ونتائجها.

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:en]

Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms.

Information we collect

The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number.

How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
  • Provide, operate, and maintain our website
  • Improve, personalize, and expand our website
  • Understand and analyze how you use our website
  • Develop new products, services, features, and functionality
  • Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes
  • Send you emails
  • Find and prevent fraud

Log Files

Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

Google DoubleClick DART Cookie

Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads

Our Advertising Partners

Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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