قراءة في تقرير سوق القهوة لعام 2023 الصادر عن DRWakefield

قراءة في تقرير سوق القهوة لعام 2023 الصادر عن DRWakefield

كان عام 2023 مليئًا بالمفاجآت! توقع الاقتصاديون حدوث ركود عالمي، نتيجة لارتفاع أسعار الفائدة وزيادة مستويات الديون العامة والخاصة في الولايات المتحدة وفي جميع أنحاء العالم. على عكس التوقعات، ارتفعت أسعار الفائدة أكثر، مما أدى إلى ارتفاع كبير في مؤشرات الأسهم الرئيسية بحلول نهاية العام. على الرغم من انخفاض بنسبة 19٪ في عام 2022، استعاد مؤشر S&P 500 تقريبًا كل خسائره، مقتربًا من ذروته التاريخية. تبقى أسئلة حول قضايا الديون دون إجابة، ولكن مع دخول السوق إلى عام 2024، يسود التفاؤل، مع توقعات بتخفيض أسعار الفائدة في النصف الثاني من العام.

بدأت القهوة العربية ” أرابيكا” ، كما هو موضح في تقرير القهوة السنوي لشركة DRWakefield DRW، عام 2023 عند 164.65 سنت/رطل وأغلقت السنة عند 188.30 سنت/رطل، مما يعكس زيادة ملحوظة قدرها 14.4%. ومع ذلك، كانت قهوة الروبوستا هي الأكثر تألقًا بارتفاعها الملحوظ بنسبة 74.2% خلال العام. تفضيل محمصي القهوة للروبوستا بفعل الوباء، جنبًا إلى جنب مع أرقام حصاد منخفضة من المنتجين الرئيسيين، دعمت تسعيرها.

سيطرت قرارات مصرفي الاحتياط المركزي على ديناميات العملات، وكانت الاختصارات مثل FED، BOE، FMOC، وJ-Pow مألوفة في نهاية العام. تعزز كل من اليورو والجنيه طوال العام، ويُتوقع أن يكون للتعديلات في 2024 تأثير كبير على قوتهما المستقبلية.

المحطات الرئيسية في عام 2023:

يناير: أظهر تقرير التزامات المتداولين (COT)  الصادر عن لجنة تداول العقود الآجلة للسلع CFTC في 17 يناير أن المبيعات قصيرة الأجل للمتداولين غير التجاريين ارتفعت إلى 43,940 عقدًا، وهو أدنى مستوى لها منذ ما قبل الجائحة. حقق السوق أدنى مستوى له للعام في 11 يناير عند 145.30 سنت/رطل. ومع ذلك، كان هذا الإحساس قصير الأمد، وعدنا بسرعة لإنهاء الشهر عند 177.40 سنت/رطل.

فبراير: أدىت المشاكل المتعلقة بالأمن السيبراني إلى عدم نشر تقرير تقرير التزامات المتداولين (COT) معظم الشهر. جذبت أرقام التضخم الانتباه، حيث وصل سوق القهوة إلى أعلى مستوى له في 22 فبراير عند 187.55 سنت/رطل.

مارس: أدى انهيار Silicon Valley Bank وSilvergate وSignature إلى حالة من عدم الاستقرار في النظام المالي العالمي. لم يكن خطر النظام محصورًا في الولايات المتحدة، حيث انتشرت مخاوف انعدم السيولة عبر المحيط إلى البنوك الأوروبية الكبيرة مثل Credit Suisse أيضًا.

إبريل: حول وقت عيد الفصح، شهد سوق القهوة انفجارًا، حيث بدأ من مستوى 167.65 سنت/رطل في 1 إبريل، وشهد أعلى مستوى شهري في 18 إبريل عند 197.90 سنت/رطل وإغلاقًا في 28 إبريل عند 180.45 سنت/رطل. السائق الرئيسي؟ تحركات الريال البرازيلي وأرقام حصاد منخفضة من المصادر الرئيسية.

مايو: هوت مخزونات الأرابيكا المعتمدة إلى أدنى مستوى لها خلال 6 أشهر، حيث انخفضت إلى 598,000 شكيلاً، ممثلة انخفاضًا بنسبة 12٪ عن مايو وانخفاضًا بنسبة 27% عن عام 2023، وقدم هذا الدعم للسوق مع دخولنا يونيو.

يونيو: شهدنا بعض التوقفات في معدلات الفائدة من قبل مصرفي الاحتياط الفيدرالي، مما جعل بعض الناس يتسائلون: “هل رأينا نهاية رفع الفائدة؟” أبقى الفدرالي على معدل الفائدة الفيدرالي في نطاق 5-5.25%، لكنه أشار إلى أنها مجرد توقف. من ناحية أخرى، قالت لاغارد إن هناك الكثير من العمل الذي ينبغي القيام به: “هل انتهينا؟ هل أنهينا الرحلة؟ لا. لسنا في مكاننا المقصود. هل لدينا أرض أخرى لنغطيها؟ نعم…”

يوليو: في بداية يوليو، كانت تلك هي أقوى فترة في العام للجنيه الاسترليني (1.30) واليورو (1.12)، ولكننا سنرى انخفاضًا مستمرًا من ذلك الحين حتى منتصف أكتوبر. استمر تفاوت القهوة الكولومبية في الانخفاض، مما أثار مخاوف بين المصادر الأخرى حول مدى الوقت الذي يحتاجونه حتى يضطروا لضبط أسعارهم أو بيع كل مخزوناتهم المتبقية. استطاع معظم منتجي أمريكا الوسطى تجنب ذلك، ولكن البيروفيون كانوا يدركون تمامًا أنهم لا يمكن أن يكونوا أغلى من كولومبيا لفترة طويلة.

أغسطس: مع اكتمال حصاد البرازيل بنسبة تزيد عن 75٪ نحو نهاية الشهر، بدأنا نرى بعض التقديرات القوية لحجم السنة تبدأ في التوضح. كوكسوب، أكبر تعاونية قهوة في البرازيل، كانت تتوقع حوالي 6.5 مليون شكل، زيادة قاربت على 30٪ عن العام السابق.

سبتمبر: سيطر الطقس في البرازيل على عناوين الأخبار، حيث تحول من الحصاد الحالي إلى تطوير الأمطار والزهور لموسم 2024/5. وعلى الرغم من المخاطر المحتملة، تراجعت السوق قرب نهاية الشهر.

اكتوبر: وصل السوق إلى أدنى مستوى سنوي له عند 145 سنتًا للرطل في 10 أكتوبر، لكنه انتعش بسرعة، ليغلق العام عند 188.30 سنتًا للرطل.

نوفمبر: حافظ كل من اليورو والجنيه الاسترليني على الزخم، في حين أثر تخفيض وكالة موديز للتصنيف الائتماني للولايات المتحدة على الدولار. وقد سبق التراجع القصير انتعاش ديسمبر، حيث أنهى اليورو عند 1.10 والجنيه الاسترليني عند 1.27.

ديسمبر: تقدمت مجموعة Mercon Coffee Group، كما ورد في تقرير DRWakefield DRW السنوي لسوق القهوة، بطلب للإفلاس، مما أثر على نيكاراغوا، حيث حصلت على أعلى حصة في السوق. أحاط عدم اليقين بمستقبل الأعمال حيث اكتسبت المناقشات حول التخفيضات المحتملة لأسعار الفائدة من قبل بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في عام 2024 زخمًا. هتافات لما قد يحمله العام الجديد!

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:en]

Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms.

Information we collect

The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number.

How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
  • Provide, operate, and maintain our website
  • Improve, personalize, and expand our website
  • Understand and analyze how you use our website
  • Develop new products, services, features, and functionality
  • Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes
  • Send you emails
  • Find and prevent fraud

Log Files

Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

Google DoubleClick DART Cookie

Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads

Our Advertising Partners

Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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