Kenya is witnessing a strong rebound in its coffee sector, with production forecast to grow by 13.3% in the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching 850,000 sixty-kilogram bags. This recovery is driven by high global prices, government reforms, and farmer support programs. Exports are also projected to rise by 10%, while domestic consumption is expected to increase by 6.9%. With these promising indicators, Kenya is reclaiming its place among the world’s top Arabica coffee producers.
High Prices and Smarter Farming Drive Kenya’s Coffee Comeback
According to the USDA’s Coffee Annual Report (May 2025), Kenya’s coffee production is forecast to increase from 750,000 bags in 2024/25 to 850,000 bags in 2025/26. Farmers have responded to favorable prices with improved agricultural practices—applying more fertilizer, controlling pests more effectively, and capitalizing on Arabica’s natural biennial production peak.
In February 2025, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) recorded a historic high of $363 per 50-kg bag, up from $254 in October 2024. Although a slight price correction is expected in the second half of the year, prices remain favorable and have reinvigorated investment in farms.
Slight Expansion in Planted Area
While harvested area is expected to remain at 105,000 hectares, planted area will increase slightly as the Kenyan government rolls out its Coffee Expansion Program in both traditional and new growing regions across Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley Kenya. The program includes subsidized seedlings, supported by county-level grants and expanded production at the Coffee Research Institute to meet increased demand.
Urbanization Slows, Coffee Area Stabilizes
Between 2020 and 2024, coffee area declined from 112,000 to 105,000 hectares due to urban development, particularly around Nairobi, Kiambu, and Nyeri. However, this trend has slowed, thanks to a stagnating real estate market, offering the sector a chance to stabilize.
Marketing Reforms and Structural Overhaul
Roughly 80% of Kenya’s coffee is sold through producer cooperatives, while the remaining volume is marketed by private farms and estates. The Nairobi Coffee Exchange remains the country’s primary marketplace, handling over 90% of coffee sales.
Since 2023, Kenya has implemented significant reforms in marketing and regulation. The NCE is now under the Capital Markets Authority, which licenses brokers responsible for classification and auction procedures. There are currently 15 licensed brokers. Additionally, licensing of millers was decentralized to county governments.
A pending Coffee Bill in Parliament seeks to formalize these changes by creating a new Coffee Board of Kenya and an independent Coffee Research and Training Institute, to be funded through a coffee sales levy.
Exports Rising but Facing EU Deforestation Law
Coffee exports are expected to grow by 10% to 840,000 bags in 2025/26, up from 763,000 bags the previous year. Green beans dominate Kenya’s export portfolio, with major buyers including:
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European Union: Over 57%
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United States: 16.75%
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South Korea: 5.16%
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United Kingdom: 3.43%
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Other emerging markets: China, Australia, India
However, the upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation, taking effect in January 2026, poses a potential challenge. In response, Kenya has formed a multi-agency committee to evaluate readiness and establish compliance mechanisms.
Domestic Consumption on the Rise
Domestic coffee consumption is projected to grow by 6.9%, reaching 62,000 bags in 2025/26. This growth is driven by the rapid expansion of coffee shops, particularly in Nairobi, and a 15% surge in tourism in 2024. Kenya’s coffee culture is evolving, with increasing demand for specialty brews and locally roasted varieties.
Despite this growth, soluble coffee consumption remains low due to the lack of local processing facilities. Kenya imports approximately 45,000 bags of instant coffee annually.
Stock Levels and Imports
Ending stocks are expected to increase to 86,000 bags in 2025/26, reflecting higher production. For 2024/25, stock estimates have been revised downward to 63,000 bags due to higher exports and tighter output.
Conclusion: Kenya’s Return to Coffee Leadership
With production, exports, and consumption all trending upward, Kenya is once again asserting itself on the global coffee stage. While challenges like EU environmental compliance lie ahead, the country’s proactive reforms and farmer-focused strategies signal a new era of growth and global relevance for Kenyan coffee.