Global Coffee Market Finds Balance as Prices Stabilize and Trade Shifts Eastward
October 2025 ICO Report Reveals Steady Prices, Regional Export Rebalancing, and Signs of Market Surplus
Dubai – Qahwa World
After months of price turbulence driven by weather extremes, logistics disruptions, and policy shifts, the global coffee market entered October 2025 in a rare state of equilibrium. According to the latest Coffee Market Report issued by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 326.38 US cents per pound, a modest 0.5% increase over September—marking a month of sideways stability in an otherwise volatile year.
The data reflects a market adjusting to both rising production in key origins and softening consumption growth across major economies. Yet behind this stability lies a quiet reshaping of global trade flows, as Asia and Africa consolidate export strength while South America experiences cyclical slowdown.
A Month of Stability Amid Global Uncertainty
The October 2025 I-CIP fluctuated between 314.68 and 344.77 US cents/lb, posting a median of 325.52 US cents/lb. Although stable, prices remain 30% higher than a year earlier, underscoring the persistent cost pressures that continue to define the post-pandemic coffee economy.
Price movements among coffee groups showed a clear divide. Colombian Milds slipped marginally (−0.1%) to 403.25 US cents/lb, while Other Milds gained 0.9% to 403.79 US cents/lb. Brazilian Naturals fell slightly to 373.47 US cents/lb, and Robustas, in contrast, expanded 2.0% to 215.06 US cents/lb — a sign of ongoing resilience in lower-grade coffee demand, especially for soluble and instant formats.
The differential between Colombian Milds and Other Milds narrowed into negative territory (−0.54 US cents/lb), highlighting how recent weather disruptions in Central America temporarily compressed quality spreads. Meanwhile, arbitrage between London and New York futures markets contracted by 2.9% to 163.84 US cents/lb, signaling closer alignment between Arabica and Robusta futures.
Market volatility, however, crept upward. Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP averaged 15.9%, up by more than two percentage points month-on-month — an indication that traders remain reactive to climate events and logistics developments, such as Suez Canal restrictions and persistent container shortages delaying deliveries.
Weather, Tariffs, and Consumption Trends: Forces in Counterbalance
The ICO attributes October’s price stability to a balance between bullish and bearish factors.
On the bullish side, Hurricane Melissa and low rainfall in key Brazilian coffee zones constrained supply, while Typhoon Kalmaegi caused significant crop losses in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia. The continuation of structural backwardation in futures markets — where near-term contracts are priced higher than future ones — further indicates tight supply for immediate delivery.
At the same time, several bearish influences tempered the market. Among them, signs of slowing consumption in the United States, where rising living costs have eroded discretionary spending. Vehicle repossessions, up 12% year-on-year, highlight a broader financial strain that extends to premium beverage categories. Additionally, a potential reduction in U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee — hinted at by Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — has fueled expectations of eased trade tension and lower costs for importers.
The result: prices moved horizontally through the month, neither rallying nor collapsing — a rare moment of equilibrium in a market accustomed to extremes.
Export Flows Reveal a Shifting Coffee Geography
While prices stabilized, trade patterns told a story of transformation. Global green coffee exports reached 9.94 million 60-kg bags in September 2025, down 0.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of negative growth in the 2024/25 coffee year. Total exports across all coffee forms fell by 2.8% to 11.00 million bags.
The Arabica segment showed divergence.
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Colombian Milds rose by 7.0%, driven by Colombia’s robust output of 14.87 million bags — up 16.5% from the previous year.
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Other Milds gained 6.1%, with Ethiopia, Mexico, and Nicaragua performing strongly.
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Brazilian Naturals, however, plunged 21.9% as Brazil entered its “off-year” in the biennial Arabica cycle and faced logistics delays at the port of Santos.
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Robustas grew 23.0% to 3.67 million bags, powered by Vietnam and Indonesia, whose improved harvests sharply reversed last year’s declines.
These mixed results left the Arabica share of global exports at 63.4%, a marginal drop from 63.7% the previous year — consistent with the long-term average since 2016.
Ethiopia, notably, emerged as a bright spot, expanding exports by 24.4% to 4.91 million bags on the back of an 11% rise in local production and strategic release of stored stocks responding to high international prices.
Regional Divergence: East Rises as South America Contracts
Regional analysis underscores a structural eastward shift in coffee trade:
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Asia & Oceania: Up 29.3% year-on-year in September and 9.1% for the full coffee year, reaching 44.45 million bags. The surge was led by Vietnam (+7.1%) and Indonesia (+46%), both benefiting from favorable weather and restored yields.
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Africa: Rose 3.2% in September and 18.6% annually to 19.69 million bags, driven by strong harvests and higher export releases from Ethiopia and Uganda.
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South America: Fell 13.9% in September and 12.3% across the coffee year to 58.94 million bags, largely due to Brazil’s cyclical downturn and port congestion.
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Mexico & Central America: Declined 14.6% in September but expanded 7.7% annually to 15.58 million bags, with Mexico and Nicaragua showing resilience.
As a result, South America’s share of global coffee exports slid from 48.4% to 42.5%, while Asia & Oceania’s share climbed to 32.1%, its highest level on record.
This redistribution confirms what many analysts have observed through 2025: a geographic rebalancing of coffee supply chains, with the global center of gravity shifting steadily toward Asia and Africa.
Soluble Coffee Gains Ground
Trade data by form reinforces this transformation. Exports of soluble coffee declined 21.0% in September but rose 5.0% over the full year to 16.72 million bags. This steady annual growth signals a continuing pivot toward value-added coffee formats catering to urban markets and middle-income consumers in producing countries.
By contrast, roasted coffee exports dropped 22.9% year-on-year to 0.68 million bags, reflecting weaker demand for ready-to-drink products in mature economies. Green coffee still dominates global shipments, accounting for 87.5% of total exports.
Global Balance Returns to Surplus
The ICO estimates world production at 177.5 million bags in 2024/25, up 5.2% year-on-year, outpacing consumption, which grew just 1.4% to 175.1 million bags. This modest gap yields a surplus of 2.4 million bags, marking the first positive balance since 2021/22.
The surplus reflects stronger harvests in Asia and Africa, coupled with a stabilization of consumption after the pandemic-era surge. Europe and North America both registered declines in coffee intake (−1.2% and −3.3%, respectively), while consumption in Asia & Oceania rose 7.4%, highlighting a shift in demand patterns alongside production.
A Market at the Crossroads
The October 2025 ICO report captures a market in transition. Prices have steadied, but volatility remains elevated; production is up, yet distribution challenges persist. The eastward drift of coffee trade — reinforced by Indonesia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Uganda — may reshape the traditional dominance of Latin American origins in the years ahead.
For producers, this stability offers breathing room after years of disruption. For traders and roasters, it demands agility — balancing sourcing strategies across continents amid ongoing climate and logistical uncertainty.
In short, the coffee world has entered a new phase: from crisis to cautious equilibrium, where resilience and regional diversification define the next chapter of global coffee commerce.
