Global Coffee Market Shaken by Tariff Shock and Climate Concerns, But Demand Keeps Prices Resilient

April 2025 proved to be a turbulent month for the global coffee market, as new tariff policies, shifting weather patterns, and evolving regional dynamics jolted prices and disrupted export trends. The latest Coffee Market Report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reveals a complex and fluctuating landscape marked by geopolitical developments, volatile price movements, and a delicate balance between bullish and bearish market forces.

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 335.76 US cents/lb in April 2025—a 3.5% decline from March, despite remaining 54.8% higher than its level a year ago. The market experienced a sharp dip early in the month, reaching a four-month low of 308.93 US cents/lb on April 8. This drop was triggered by the U.S. government’s unexpected announcement of new tariffs, which caused an immediate 32.59 cents/lb plunge in the index. However, markets quickly rebounded after the tariff decision was temporarily suspended for 90 days, reflecting the current volatility and sensitivity of the global coffee trade.

While prices recovered by mid-April, the market has yet to find a definitive direction. The 12-month rolling average stands at 278.20 US cents/lb, but daily price volatility and mixed futures signals suggest continued uncertainty.

Green bean exports totaled 11.64 million bags in March 2025, down 0.9% year-on-year. This marks the third consecutive month of export decline in the 2024/25 coffee year, with total green exports down 3.2% compared to the same period in 2023/24.

Arabica varieties now account for 63% of global green coffee exports, up from 59.7% a year ago. Notably, Colombian Milds surged by 25.3% to 1.33 million bags, largely driven by Colombia’s own 25.2% export increase. Other Milds also rose by 5.9%, supported by strong performances from Costa Rica, Ethiopia, and Honduras.

In contrast, exports of Brazilian Naturals fell 2.4% year-on-year, with Brazil’s output down 9.4%. Despite a 65.4% rise in Ethiopian exports mitigating some losses, the overall downturn highlights Brazil’s return to typical cyclical output levels following an exceptional harvest in 2023/24.

Robusta exports experienced a sharper 8.4% year-on-year drop to 4.55 million bags, with Brazil’s shipments plunging 83.6%—a correction after extended periods of unusually high exports in previous months.

Regional data underscores shifting dynamics in global supply:

• Africa recorded an exceptional 36.3% rise in exports to 1.58 million bags, marking the 16th straight month of growth. Ethiopia and Uganda led the expansion, supported by strong harvests and high international prices.

• Asia & Oceania posted a 6.1% rise to 4.84 million bags, with Indonesia’s exports jumping 125.4% due to base effects and favorable production cycles. Vietnam, however, saw a 4.0% decline.

• Mexico & Central America rebounded with a 15.3% increase in exports, following a prolonged downturn. Honduras and Mexico were the primary contributors.

• South America, led by Brazil, declined by 15.9%, registering its fourth consecutive month of falling exports. This marked the region’s lowest share of global exports since June 2023, now standing at just 35.7%.

The global coffee market in April was shaped by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish pressures:

Bullish factors include:

• Adverse weather in Brazil, where Cooxupé reported high temperatures and below-average rainfall, could impact upcoming yields.

• Optimism over falling global inflation—from 5.7% in 2024 to a projected 3.6% by 2026—points to improving purchasing power and rising coffee demand.

• Coffee’s low elasticity, with a wide range of price-accessible products, continues to support steady consumption despite price shifts.

• A futures market inversion suggests short-term supply tightness, while the shrinking price gap between Colombian Milds and Other Milds points to a potential undersupply of quality beans.

Bearish factors:

• Retail price hikes linked to higher customs duties could eventually suppress demand.

• The inclusion of Vietnamese washed Arabica as a deliverable origin in the Coffee “C” futures contract may ease supply concerns, potentially pressuring prices downward.

Arabica certified stocks in New York rose 6.4% in April to 0.85 million bags, while Robusta stocks in London dropped 3.1% to 0.71 million bags. Price volatility also moderated overall, particularly in Arabicas, with the I-CIP’s volatility falling to 11.2% from 12.3% in March. However, Robusta volatility increased, highlighting continued uncertainty in that segment.

March also witnessed significant growth in value-added coffee forms:

• Soluble coffee exports rose 15.6% to 1.28 million bags, driven largely by Brazil.

• Roasted coffee exports increased by 27.3% to 82,684 bags, indicating rising demand for finished coffee products in global markets.

Despite the April turbulence, the coffee market remains robust and resilient. With global inflation expected to continue its downward trend and demand projected to rise steadily, especially in emerging economies, the long-term outlook appears cautiously optimistic. However, much hinges on weather developments in Brazil, the duration of tariff suspensions, and shifts in the futures market.

As of now, Arabicas continue to lead the market while Robustas face pressure. With the 2024/25 coffee year nearing its midpoint, the coming months will be critical in determining whether the bullish forces can overcome the headwinds of global trade politics and climate volatility.