A Brief Overview of Sucden Financial’s Report: Coffee Crop Update – Navigating the Challenges in Coffee Markets
Sucden Financial is a leading multi-asset execution, clearing and liquidity provider across FX, fixed income and commodities. A report entitled “Modernizing the Coffee Crop: A Bumpy Journey for Coffee Markets.”
According to the report, the coffee industry experienced a rollercoaster ride in 2023, with turbulent prices impacting both Arabica and Robusta contracts. Brazil and Vietnam continue to play a pivotal role, comprising 58% of the total blend. Concerns linger about weather conditions, but it is believed that the majority of the damage has occurred, leading to expectations of a fading super crop. While there is no overall shortage of coffee, uncertainties in certain regions create doubts about accessibility.
Executive Summary: Global Economic Variances
The US economy remains robust, driven by strong consumer spending and a tight labor market. Inflation is on the decline, with expectations of a gradual easing of monetary policy, starting with a 25bps Fed interest rate cut in March. In contrast, the eurozone teeters on the brink of recession, facing contraction in manufacturing and services sectors. China grapples with low consumer confidence, weaker global demand, and a deepening property crisis. Brazil, despite a 3% growth in 2023, faces challenges in 2024 due to reduced agricultural output caused by adverse weather conditions.
Starbucks concluded Q4 2023 on a positive note, reporting an 8% increase in global comparable store sales and record consolidated net revenues of $9.4 billion. Nestle thrived with strong organic growth, while JDE Peet’s faced challenges with lower sales growth and decreased profit.
Market Outlook: A Cautionary Tale
The coffee market faces uncertainties, primarily influenced by Brazil and Vietnam. Despite concerns about the weather, expectations of a super crop fading, and potential shifts in farmer behavior, optimism prevails. However, the recent rally in prices is deemed overdone, and a marginal retracement is anticipated in the near term. Changes are noted in other coffee origins, with expectations for production in India, Indonesia, and Central America.
Macro Overview: US Economy Resilient, Global Variances Persist
The US economy defies recession concerns, showing positive Q1’24 outlook with resilient output growth. Consumer spending remains strong, supported by a robust labor market. Inflation decline and expectations of a 25bps interest rate cut in March contribute to an optimistic economic forecast. The global scenario, however, presents challenges, with the eurozone on the brink of recession and China facing economic hurdles.
Corporate Results: Starbucks Shines, Nestle Excels, JDE Peet’s Faces Challenges
Starbucks celebrates a successful Q4 2023, recording an 8% increase in global comparable store sales and reaching record consolidated net revenues. Nestle experiences strong organic growth, especially in emerging markets and e-commerce. In contrast, JDE Peet’s confronts challenges with lower organic sales growth and decreased underlying profit.
Arabica and Robusta Dynamics: Price Swings and Crop Insights
The market witnesses shifts in demand between Arabica and Robusta, leading to multi-decade highs and lows in contract prices. Weather concerns and the threat of El Nino impact the market sentiment. Despite uncertainties, the outlook for Brazil and Vietnam remains positive, with expectations for a retracement in recent price rallies.
Conillon Challenges: Weather Woes and Crop Impact
Dry weather in northern Espirito Santo raises concerns about conillon cultivation, with potential damage estimates ranging from 15% to 35%. Limited irrigation options and government restrictions exacerbate worries about conillon production.
Inventories and Commitment of Traders: Balancing Supply and Demand
Certified stocks witness drawdowns, supporting upward momentum in prices. Attention shifts to supply stories, with Central American shipments slow but expected to pick up. Commitment of Traders positions indicate high net lengths for Arabica and Robusta, with a cautious outlook for potential price vulnerabilities.
In conclusion, the coffee market faces a complex landscape influenced by global economic trends, corporate performances, and crop dynamics. Navigating through uncertainties, industry players remain cautiously optimistic while anticipating potential retracements in recent price rallies.
