The Global Coffee Market Report for February 2025, published by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), has revealed significant shifts in global coffee exports. While Africa has witnessed remarkable growth in its coffee shipments, Asia and Oceania have experienced a sharp decline.
According to the report, Africa’s coffee exports grew by 7.1% in January 2025, marking the highest January shipment volume since 1997. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in exports from Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire, which surged by 28.1%, helping to offset the global supply shortfall caused by declining Asian shipments.
In contrast, coffee exports from Asia and Oceania dropped by 31.9% during the same period, primarily due to a steep 43.8% decline in Vietnam’s coffee shipments—the lowest January export volume for Vietnam in six years. The Vietnamese coffee sector continues to struggle with domestic supply shortages and logistical challenges hindering exports.
Global Coffee Prices Reach Record Highs
These market shifts come at a time when global coffee prices are soaring to unprecedented levels. The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reached 354.32 US cents per pound in February 2025, reflecting a 14.3% increase from January—the highest monthly average on record.
The report attributes this sharp price surge to several factors, including:
- A significant decline in Robusta exports, leading to supply shortages.
- Tighter trade financing and credit constraints, reducing purchasing power.
- Higher margin requirements in the coffee futures market, forcing traders to adjust their positions.
- Economic uncertainty in major consuming markets, such as the United States and the European Union, impacting buying behavior.
Africa Strengthens Its Position in the Global Coffee Trade
With Asian exports declining, African coffee producers are gaining greater influence in the global market. Uganda and Côte d’Ivoire—two of Africa’s largest Robusta coffee exporters—have seen increased demand for their beans as buyers seek alternative supply sources to mitigate Vietnam’s shortages.
Experts predict that Africa’s share of global coffee exports will continue to grow, opening up new investment opportunities and trade partnerships across the region.
Where is the Global Coffee Market Heading?
These shifts in supply dynamics raise crucial questions about the future of coffee trade:
- Can Vietnam reclaim its lost market share, or will Africa continue to rise as a key supplier?
- How will coffee prices respond to these changes in the coming months?
- Will buyers adjust their sourcing strategies to adapt to this new reality?
With Arabica gaining more market share and Africa’s role expanding, the global coffee industry stands at a pivotal moment in its history.