Arabica coffee futures surged on Friday amidst worries over Brazil’s coffee crops, while robusta prices fluctuated.

Coffee prices ended the session with arabica reaching a new 5-3/4 month high. Concerns mounted as heavy rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions raised fears of crop damage. Somar Meteorologia’s report indicated a significant increase in rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, which accounts for a substantial portion of the country’s arabica crop.

Meanwhile, worries persisted over the robusta coffee production in Vietnam due to excessive dryness. Although robusta prices hit an all-time high earlier, profit-taking ensued after ICE-monitored inventories rose to a 2-1/2 month high.

The current El Nino weather event is contributing to bullish sentiments for coffee prices, with its impact on Brazil’s coffee production and Vietnam’s coffee areas noted. Tight supplies from Vietnam further bolstered prices, with projections indicating a significant drop in coffee production for the upcoming crop year.

However, a rebound in Vietnam’s coffee exports tempered some of the bullish momentum. Additionally, Rabobank’s prediction of a surplus for the upcoming marketing year provided a bearish outlook, albeit with adjustments to production forecasts.

Despite rebounding from historic lows, coffee inventories remain a point of interest, particularly with larger exports from Brazil. Recent reports highlight substantial increases in global coffee exports, adding to market dynamics.

Forecasts from the International Coffee Organization and the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service shed light on production and consumption trends, with Brazil expected to play a significant role in arabica production.

Overall, the coffee market continues to navigate through a complex interplay of factors, with Brazil’s crop concerns taking center stage amidst broader global dynamics.