Brazil’s Coffee Industry Continues to Face Climate Challenges
Three years after the historic frost that struck Brazil’s coffee sector, the country’s coffee growers are still grappling with the aftermath. Originally reported in Global Coffee Report, this story reveals how the 2021 frost severely damaged Brazilian coffee fields, and ongoing erratic weather continues to hinder recovery.
Brazil’s coffee farms, which stretch across vast areas from Paraná to Minas Gerais, have traditionally flourished, with Minas Gerais producing nearly half of the nation’s coffee. Yet, recent climate conditions have led to extensive leaf drop and damaged branches, impacting Arabica coffee production in key regions like Cerrado Mineiro and Alta Mogiana.
A Hard-Hit Sector and New Climate Setbacks
From August 11-14, 2024, a new cold front struck Brazil’s coffee regions, dealing a fresh blow to early flowering plants. This frost hit areas already weakened by previous climate stresses, such as Campos Altos in Minas Gerais, where grower Marcelo Paterno reported drastic declines in crop volume. In addition, a report from Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, confirms that the 2024 harvest fell short of expectations, despite an initial forecast for a larger crop than in 2023.
Analysts predict that the 2024 coffee yield will be at least 10% lower than the previous year’s harvest. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry initially estimated a 2024 harvest of 58.8 million bags, a projected 6.8% increase from 2023. However, in September, the estimate dropped to 54.79 million bags due to unfavorable weather. Projections indicate that the final numbers may decline even further by year-end.
Ongoing Drought and Its Impact on Future Crops
In many regions, such as Alfenas and Alta Mogiana, prolonged drought conditions and record high temperatures have exacerbated the challenges. These conditions have led to “stress flowering,” where trees overproduce leaves to compensate for damage, which diminishes the crop yield potential. Vicente Zotti, a coffee analyst from Franca, explained that certain farms went over four months without rain, leading to significant tree stress that may impact production into 2025.
Beyond Arabica, Espírito Santo’s Robusta crop has also been affected, as heavy rains and wind damage resulted in significant defoliation and a potential 30% drop in output for 2025. According to Brazilian coffee economist Marco Antonio Jacob, this year’s overall Robusta crop is already down by about 35% on average.
A Challenging Future for Brazilian Coffee Production
The Brazilian coffee sector is bracing for a fifth consecutive small harvest in the 2025/2026 cycle. Historical patterns, where high-yield years were followed by low-yield ones, may no longer hold due to the ongoing impact of 2021’s frost and persistent climate issues. The industry’s ability to return to pre-2021 yields remains uncertain, with experts suggesting that meaningful recovery might not come before 2026.
Arabica prices have seen volatility in response to these developments, reflecting global concerns about the future of coffee production in Brazil. With climate conditions increasingly unpredictable, Brazil’s coffee producers face significant obstacles in their efforts to restore stability to their crops.