In 2025, coffee prices in Russia are expected to increase by 20-25%. The primary causes are unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee producers, as stated by Anton Trenin, an expert from the corporate ratings group at ACRA, in an interview with RIA Novosti.
According to Trenin, Russia does not produce coffee and is entirely dependent on imports. Globally, around 70% of coffee production consists of Arabica and 30% of Robusta. Brazil, the largest producer of Arabica, supplies about one-third of the global demand. However, severe droughts in key regions of the country since April have significantly reduced rainfall levels, impacting crop forecasts negatively.
In Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of Robusta, typhoons and irregular rainfall have also led to expectations of reduced coffee yields. These factors are creating a supply shortage and driving up prices in the global market.
Trenin highlighted that while Robusta was previously used to reduce the cost of coffee blends, its price is now almost on par with Arabica. This week, coffee bean prices on the stock exchange hit multi-year highs: January futures for Robusta exceeded $5,500 per ton for the first time since 2008. Meanwhile, Arabica reached $7,300 per ton, setting a record not seen since 1977.
In addition to global trends, Russia is experiencing further price increases due to the weakening ruble against the dollar, making imported coffee more expensive. Trenin noted that Russian consumers will likely face ongoing price hikes in 2025.
Global coffee stocks are dwindling, and concerns about prolonged dry spells continue to shift the balance of supply and demand. These factors are expected to sustain high coffee prices throughout next year.