Coffee prices in Russia are expected to rise by 20-30% by the end of the year due to lower crop yields caused by droughts in Brazil and Vietnam. This was reported by “Kommersant” citing market participants.

“Coffee plantations in Vietnam, a major producer of robusta, suffered from typhoons and a lack of rainfall, while Brazil, the key player in the arabica market, is struggling with drought,” said Andrey Sizov, the director of SovEcon.

According to data from the Brazilian agricultural agency Conab, coffee production in Brazil is expected to decrease by over 7% during the 2023/2024 agricultural year, totaling 54.8 million bags. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that coffee exports from Vietnam could fall by 20% to 1.336 million tons during the same period due to unfavorable weather conditions.

The report highlights that global exchange prices for major types of coffee have nearly doubled over the past year and surged by 42% in the past six months, hitting a 13-year high. Sergey Rumyantsev, the founder of One Price Coffee, confirmed that purchase prices have risen by 30-35% over the past two to three months. Coffee Like also reported a 10% increase in prices in recent months and a 35% increase over the year.

Rumyantsev added that green (unroasted) coffee is virtually unavailable for free sale in the Russian market. Major roasting companies are signing long-term contracts, but these do not always guarantee timely deliveries due to logistical challenges, noted Philip Leitis, the founder of “Truth Coffee.” Yana Alkhutova, the director of Cofix, added that the complex political situation in the Middle East is affecting delivery times and shipping costs.

Nikolai Markin, a representative of the May production company, emphasized that raw material prices are rising much faster than finished products to prevent price shock. Dmitry Gushchin, CEO of Lalibela Coffee, concluded that consumers can expect price increases of 20-30%.

It is worth noting that record-high coffee prices were reported in mid-September. A similar situation occurred in Brazil several years ago when crops were affected by frost and drought, as well as unfavorable epidemiological conditions in Vietnam. This led to coffee prices hitting a 10-year high by the end of 2021.