Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August 2025 report has revealed a sharp decline in global coffee stocks, falling to their lowest level since April 2024. The drop in inventories comes just weeks after prices reached a historic high, highlighting a fragile market caught between soaring demand and tightening supply.
According to the ICO, certified Arabica stocks held at the New York Exchange dropped 7.9% to 0.77 million bags, marking a 16-month low. Robusta inventories at the London Exchange also fell by 4.6%, standing at 1.13 million bags. The simultaneous reduction across both major coffee types signals a broad squeeze on available supply.
Why Stocks Are Falling
Analysts point to several reasons behind the decline:
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Weaker export flows – Global green coffee exports fell for the sixth consecutive month in July 2025, tightening supplies into key markets.
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Crop concerns – Brazil, the world’s top producer, reported larger bean sizes but weaker density, which reduced overall yield estimates.
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Climate risks – A frost in Brazil earlier this year damaged an estimated half a million bags.
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Regulatory pressure – European roasters have been stockpiling ahead of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) that comes into force at the end of 2025, drawing beans out of certified warehouses into private storage.
Connection to Soaring Prices
The fall in stocks coincided with a dramatic rise in prices. In August, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbed 14.6% to 297.05 US cents per pound, the highest since 2024. With inventories shrinking, the likelihood of further price volatility is increasing, especially if supply disruptions persist.
Regional Dynamics
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South America posted the steepest decline, with exports down 18.5%, driven by a 28.6% fall in Brazil.
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Asia & Oceania moved in the opposite direction, growing exports 22.7%, led by Vietnam (+29.4%) and Indonesia (+20.4%).
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Africa also contributed positively, with exports rising 4.4%, thanks to strong performance in Uganda (+51.4%) and Ethiopia (+12.5%).
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Mexico & Central America recorded moderate growth of 7.2%, helping to diversify global supply, though not enough to offset South America’s losses.
What It Means for the Market
Industry experts warn that the current drawdown in stocks leaves the coffee market more vulnerable to external shocks. Further weather events in Brazil or Vietnam could deepen the supply gap, while the EUDR may slow exports to Europe. Rising shipping and labor costs add another layer of pressure on the supply chain, feeding into higher costs for roasters and consumers alike.
Outlook
The ICO emphasized that stock levels will remain a critical indicator for the market in the coming months. Any further declines could trigger another round of price surges, prolonging uncertainty for producers, traders, and consumers. With prices already at historic highs and inventories at multi-year lows, coffee is entering one of its most volatile periods in recent memory
