Colombia’s coffee production is forecast to fall by 5.3% in 2025/2026 due to heavy rains and record-high prices. Exports and domestic supply face new challenges.
Colombia, the third-largest coffee producer in the world, is expected to face a significant setback in the 2025/2026 marketing year as production is forecast to drop by 5.3%, reaching just 12.5 million 60-kg bags of green bean equivalent. The decrease, outlined in the USDA Coffee Annual Report for May 2025, is attributed to excessive rainfall that disrupted flowering, along with a sustained period of high coffee prices that has discouraged producers from investing in renovation and replanting. This downturn comes shortly after a modest recovery in the previous year, which had been driven by favorable El Niño conditions.
While El Niño raised temperatures and improved soil moisture, boosting production by 3.5% to 13.2 million bags in 2024/2025, that momentum was short-lived. In early 2025, heavy rains interrupted the flowering phase of coffee trees, setting the stage for a weaker harvest starting in October. Although the La Niña phenomenon is currently weakening and is expected to shift to neutral by late 2025, the damage to flowering has already impacted production forecasts for the start of the new season.
Despite strong prices—reaching COP 3.12 million per 125-kg bag by February 2025, a 70% increase since January 2024—producers are not reinvesting as expected. Higher domestic prices, while beneficial in the short term, have not offset the rising cost of production caused by wage increases and labor shortages, especially in rural coffee-growing areas. Even as fertilizer prices ease, overall profitability remains squeezed, prompting many growers to delay farm renovations.
A key strength in Colombia’s coffee sector lies in its specialty segment. Around 40% of national output qualifies as specialty-grade coffee certified by programs like Rainforest Alliance, Fairtrade, and Bird Friendly. These certifications allow smallholders—who produce 60% of the country’s coffee on plots under 5 hectares—to receive premium prices that help them stay afloat in challenging market conditions. Colombia has also made significant progress in upgrading its farms, with 87% of coffee-growing areas now planted with rust-resistant varieties, and average tree density reaching a record 5,340 trees per hectare. In late 2024, Colombia’s coffee research center Cenicafe introduced a new variety, Castillo 2.0, which is more resistant to disease and climate stress. However, it remains too early to gauge adoption among farmers.
Coffee exports are expected to fall to 11.8 million bags in 2025/2026—a 4.1% decline—primarily due to the drop in production. The United States remains Colombia’s top export market, absorbing over 40% of shipments, followed by the European Union, Canada, and Japan. Notably, exports to the U.S. are growing again after five years of decline, despite the recent imposition of a 10% tariff under Executive Order 14257. Analysts do not expect the tariff to have a major impact, as competing producers face similar conditions. In a bid to boost retail presence, Procafecol, which owns the Juan Valdez brand, has partnered with Green Coffee Company Holdings to expand roasted coffee sales in supermarkets and institutional outlets across North America.
Domestically, coffee consumption is projected to remain unchanged at 2.2 million bags through 2026. Although Colombia’s economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2025 and inflation is forecast to ease to 4.1%, high coffee prices are suppressing consumption growth. Soluble and low-cost blends still dominate local preferences, and with per capita consumption at just 3.08 kg, Colombia trails behind other Latin American coffee producers where annual consumption exceeds 6 kg per person. Fedecafe continues its efforts to shift this dynamic through its long-running national campaign “Busca el Triángulo de la Calidad – Café de Colombia,” which certifies products made from 100% Colombian beans. As of this year, over 850 brands carry the trademark triangle.
To meet internal demand amid falling production, coffee imports are set to rise by 34% to 1.5 million bags. These imports, mainly from Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador, are used for soluble and lower-cost blends. The bulk of imports—around 70%—are unroasted green beans, while soluble coffee accounts for 28.5%, and roasted products make up the remaining fraction.
Compliance with EU Deforestation Law
A major concern for Colombia’s coffee exporters is the European Union’s Regulation 2023/1115, which mandates deforestation-free sourcing for coffee and other commodities. With over 20% of Colombia’s coffee exports destined for Europe, compliance is critical. The deadline is December 30, 2025 for large companies and June 2026 for smallholders. To prepare producers, Fedecafe has launched a national traceability platform and is offering legal and technical training to help farms meet the new standards.
Ending stocks for the upcoming season are forecast to decline slightly to 458,000 bags. Meanwhile, Colombia’s Coffee Price Stabilization Fund—intended to compensate growers when prices fall below production costs—has not yet been triggered due to persistently strong market rates. The fund currently holds approximately COP 370 billion (about $95 million USD) in reserve. If triggered, it could help stabilize income for smallholders in future downturns.
Colombia’s coffee sector remains a complex mix of resilience and vulnerability. The country’s leadership in specialty coffee and its export partnerships continue to open global opportunities. However, producers face mounting uncertainty driven by erratic weather, labor shortages, global tariffs, and regulatory shifts. As the 2025/2026 season approaches, the industry must strike a balance between short-term gains and long-term sustainability.