New Report Unveils Challenges and Opportunities in the Global Coffee Market

A recent report authored by Daria Efanova, Head of Research at Sucden Financial, titled “Coffee Crop Update – Under the Weather,” provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the global coffee market. The report, published on June 10, 2024, outlines the significant factors affecting coffee production and pricing, with a particular focus on the impacts of adverse weather conditions and market dynamics in major coffee-producing regions.

Weather Woes and Crop Forecasts

Efanova’s report highlights the considerable impact of weather anomalies on coffee production, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam, which together account for 58% of the world’s coffee supply. The analysis indicates that while initial fears of a disastrous crop year have subsided, the lingering effects of unfavorable weather have nonetheless dampened expectations for a bumper harvest.

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, faced severe weather disruptions, including frost and drought, which have collectively reduced the output of both Arabica and Robusta varieties. Similarly, Vietnam, a key producer of Robusta coffee, has experienced irregular weather patterns that have complicated harvesting and production processes.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Despite these challenges, the report emphasizes that there is no overall shortage of coffee. However, supply inconsistencies across different regions have led to market volatility and uncertainty regarding coffee accessibility. Efanova notes that certified stocks have seen a significant decline, particularly in Brazil, which has strained the availability of high-quality beans and maintained upward pressure on prices.

The report provides a detailed supply and demand outlook, incorporating primary data from the coffee industry and applying fundamental models to predict future trends. These insights are crucial for market participants to navigate the complexities of the current coffee landscape.

Price Trends and Market Reactions

Coffee prices have experienced turbulent fluctuations over the past year, with significant impacts on both Arabica and Robusta contracts. The report documents that, while prices have remained relatively stable above 170 cents per pound, the market has not fully recovered from the disruptions caused by adverse weather.

The analysis also explores how futures markets have reacted to these conditions. Despite the substantial drawdown in certified stocks, futures prices have remained broadly unchanged, indicating a complex interplay between supply constraints and market sentiment.

Future Outlook and Strategic Recommendations

Looking ahead, the report suggests that the potential for a super crop is diminishing, with the focus shifting towards stabilizing production and mitigating further risks. Efanova recommends several strategic approaches for stakeholders in the coffee industry, including:

  1. Investment in Sustainable Practices: Emphasizing the need for sustainable agricultural practices to enhance resilience against climate change and weather variability.
  2. Diversification of Supply Sources: Encouraging diversification to reduce dependence on a few key producing regions and ensure a more stable global supply chain.
  3. Enhanced Market Intelligence: Utilizing advanced market intelligence and data analytics to better predict and respond to market shifts.

Technological and Market Innovations

The report also highlights the role of technological advancements and innovative practices in shaping the future of the coffee market. From precision agriculture techniques to advanced processing methods, these innovations are poised to enhance productivity and quality in the coffee sector.

Impact on Global Coffee Trade

Efanova’s analysis extends to the broader implications for global coffee trade, noting that the fluctuations in supply and pricing have significant ripple effects across the entire supply chain. Importers and exporters are advised to closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic market.


In conclusion, the “Coffee Crop Update – Under the Weather” report by Daria Efanova provides a comprehensive overview of the current challenges and opportunities in the global coffee market. By addressing the critical issues of weather impacts, supply and demand dynamics, and market volatility, the report offers valuable insights and strategic recommendations for industry stakeholders. As the coffee market continues to evolve, staying informed and adaptable will be key to navigating the complexities of this essential global commodity.

For more detailed information, you can read the full report on Sucden Financial’s website here.

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