Global coffee production is forecast to reach a record 178.7 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 season, driven by impressive growth in countries like Uganda, Ethiopia, and Vietnam. The USDA’s latest report highlights key regional trends, shifting trade dynamics, and the implications of rising prices and tight inventories for the global coffee economy.
Explore the top trends shaping the global coffee sector here.
In a year marked by climatic recovery and strategic agricultural investment, global coffee production is set to hit an all-time high of 178.7 million 60-kilogram bags, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) June 2025 Coffee: World Markets and Trade report. This 4.3-million-bag increase over the 2024/25 season comes amid record output in Ethiopia, continued recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia, and resilient production in Uganda.
With global consumption forecast at 169.4 million bags, the highest ever recorded, and global exports projected to rise to 122.3 million bags, the coffee industry is navigating a period of high demand, constrained inventories, and sustained price increases.
Uganda’s Output to Continue Expanding
Uganda remains a standout in Africa’s coffee landscape, forecast to produce 6.875 million bags in 2025/26—5.815 million Robusta and 1.06 million Arabica. This positions Uganda as the fourth-largest Robusta producer globally, after Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia.
Coffee is a pillar of Uganda’s economy, contributing nearly 20% of foreign exchange earnings, with 2024 export revenues reaching $1.1 billion. The sector supports 1.8 million smallholder farmers, who typically farm less than 2.5 hectares and often intercrop coffee with bananas, beans, and vanilla—a strategy that improves soil health and income diversity but may impact yield per hectare.
In recent years, Uganda’s government, through the now-dissolved Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), launched national initiatives to strengthen the sector’s resilience and competitiveness. These include:
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The Coffee Production Campaign and the National Coffee Policy, focusing on increasing productivity and expanding global market access.
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Direct support for fertilizer and pesticide distribution, as well as seed research to combat counterfeit inputs.
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Development of marketing strategies and international partnerships to reduce trade barriers and promote Ugandan coffee abroad.
Although the UCDA was integrated into the Ministry of Agriculture in November 2024, its legacy continues through programs aimed at achieving the ambitious target of 20 million bags by 2030. Uganda nearly doubled its coffee output in the past decade—an exceptional feat compared to more modest growth elsewhere.
Ethiopia Sets New Production Record
Ethiopia, the birthplace of Arabica coffee, is projected to harvest 11.6 million bags, an all-time high, thanks to strategic replanting of aging trees with higher-yielding varieties. This effort, alongside improved pruning practices and better training, has boosted productivity in recent years.
Coffee remains central to Ethiopia’s export economy. The country is expected to ship 7.8 million bags, up 800,000 from the previous year, as the sector benefits from strong global demand and improved supply chains.
Vietnam’s Rebound Lifts Global Output
Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta exporter, is forecast to produce 31.0 million bags in 2025/26, up 2 million bags from the previous year. This recovery follows better weather conditions and a renewed investment in farming inputs—enabled by higher market prices.
Vietnam’s bean exports are expected to rise to 24.6 million bags, as supply levels normalize following recent droughts. The country’s nearly unchanged harvest area reflects increasing efficiency and yield optimization rather than expansion.
Indonesia Gains Momentum
Indonesia, another major Robusta player, is projected to produce 11.3 million bags, supported by favorable weather in the Robusta-growing regions of Southern Sumatra and Java. Robusta will account for approximately 9.8 million bags, while Arabica production is expected to rise slightly to 1.5 million bags.
Exports are forecast to grow to 6.5 million bags, thanks to ample supply and rising international interest in Indonesian beans.
Brazil Faces Arabica Setbacks Despite Robusta Gains
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is forecast to produce 65.0 million bags in 2025/26—a marginal increase of 300,000 bags over the previous year. However, the numbers reveal a split trend:
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Robusta production is expected to reach a record 24.1 million bags, supported by optimal rainfall in Espirito Santo and Bahia.
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In contrast, Arabica production is forecast to fall by 2.8 million bags to 40.9 million, as drought and heat in Minas Gerais and São Paulo affected flowering and fruit development.
Brazilian coffee exports are expected to decline to 41.75 million bags, as elevated prices discourage buyers from rebuilding inventories.
Colombia Hit by Excess Rainfall
Colombian output is projected to decrease to 12.5 million bags, down 700,000, due to excessive rainfall and cloud cover disrupting flowering stages. While these conditions favored the spread of coffee leaf rust, the widespread use of resistant varieties helped mitigate its impact.
Exports are forecast to fall to 10.7 million bags, primarily to the U.S. and European Union.
Trade and Consumption Dynamics
Global bean exports are forecast to rise to 122.3 million bags, with gains in Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Indonesia offsetting reductions from Brazil and Colombia. Notably:
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The European Union remains the largest importer with 45.2 million bags.
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The United States follows with 25.5 million bags.
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China’s coffee imports continue to grow, reaching 5.4 million bags, driven by booming café culture and e-commerce.
On the consumption side, global intake is projected at 169.4 million bags, reinforcing concerns over tight inventories, with ending stocks forecast at just 22.8 million bags—well below historical averages.
Price Trends and Market Implications
The ICO composite price index has surged by over 90% in the past two years, fueled by tight supply-demand balances and production risks. This price surge has prompted some producing countries to reinvest in quality and yield, while others face challenges in securing affordable inputs.
Looking Ahead
As the global coffee industry prepares for another year of transformation, the USDA’s forecast underscores the importance of strategic investment, climate resilience, and trade partnerships. Countries like Uganda and Ethiopia are proving that with the right support, even smallholder-based systems can thrive on the world stage.
The next USDA report on global coffee markets is due for release on December 18, 2025, and is expected to provide deeper insight into post-harvest outcomes, market corrections, and longer-term supply forecasts.