International Coffee Organization releases its “Coffee and Outlook” report for December 2023
The International Coffee Organization issued its report for December 2023, entitled “Coffee Report and Outlook…December 2023.”
The extensive report covering various aspects of coffee production, consumption and trade around the world reveals trends and forecasts for the global coffee market.
The report confirms that global coffee production witnessed a marginal increase of 0.1% to reach 168.2 million bags, indicating significant shifts in production as production grows in the Americas and declines in the regions of Asia, Oceania and Africa.
According to the report, a 4.8% increase in South America, driven by increased production in Brazil every two years, mitigated the decline in Asia and Africa, resulting in a combined production of 100.5 million bags in the Americas.
The report indicated that the division of production between Arabica and Robusta reflects the dominance of the Americas, with Arabica production increasing by 1.8% to 94.0 million bags while Robusta production decreased by 2.0% to 74.2 million bags.
The report expects coffee production for 2023/24 to rise by 5.8% to 178.0 million bags, with the impact of biennial production playing an important role, especially in Brazil.
The report suggests that adverse weather conditions will affect expectations, especially in light of the expected occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon.
Regarding consumption trends, the report confirms that, despite positive growth expectations, global coffee consumption in 2022/23 recorded a sudden decline of 2.0% to 173.1 million bags.
The report attributed the decline in consumption to several factors, most notably the high cost of living, low disposable income, and the large withdrawal from inventories.
In addition, the difficult global economic conditions, characterized by high inflation and increasing interest rates, affected consumption rates, which was observed in 2022/23.
Regarding consumption expectations for the year 2023/24, the report confirms that, assuming global economic growth exceeding 3.0%, global coffee consumption is expected to rebound, growing by 2.2% to reach 177.0 million bags. Non-producing countries will contribute significantly to this increase.
At the market level, the report expects that the global coffee market will achieve a surplus of 1.0 million bags in the next coffee year 2023/24.
