Rewing Crisis: Climate Change Threatens Coffee Production, Global Prices on the Brink
In the realm of global agriculture, the cherished coffee bean faces an unprecedented threat as climate change ushers in unfavorable conditions for its cultivation. A recent study conducted by the Australian research organization CSIRO paints a grim picture of diminishing lands suitable for growing coffee, a predicament that could lead to a substantial increase in the cost of this beloved beverage.
Over the past decades, climatic conditions have taken a toll on coffee yields, with projections suggesting that by the year 2050, the available land for coffee cultivation could be slashed by more than half. The repercussions of this ominous forecast are particularly severe for leading coffee-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam, whose economies and livelihoods are deeply intertwined with the coffee industry.
Friedel Hütz-Adams, an expert in the field, emphasizes the looming transformations in the future of coffee-exporting countries. He notes the uncertainty faced by coffee farmers in regions like Tanzania, where the prospect of ascending higher into the mountains for coffee cultivation becomes uncertain, as competing farmers might occupy those territories for alternative crops such as tea.
- High Temperature
Theoretically, researchers posit that the warming climate could open up new, previously unsuitable areas for coffee cultivation. However, this comes with ethical and environmental quandaries, as potential new coffee lands often coincide with forested regions. Hütz-Adams warns against deforestation, as it exacerbates climate change by increasing CO2 emissions. Moreover, the European Union, a pivotal coffee importer, prohibits the importation of products from deforested areas since the end of 2020.
The coffee industry, despite its global significance, remains relatively unexplored, with only two dominant species—Arabica and Robusta—capturing the market. Sophie von Loeben points out the existence of around 130 wild coffee species, some of which may possess resistance to heat or specific pests. However, the transition to planting these alternative varieties is fraught with challenges. The development of new coffee varieties is a time-consuming process, and the subsequent delivery of billions of seedlings to farms, with their first harvest years away, poses significant hurdles.
An additional obstacle to implementing change is the poverty prevalent among coffee farmers. Hütz-Adams identifies a critical phase termed the ‘valley of death,’ during which farmers, already struggling to make ends meet, face a prolonged period without income. The exploitation of more than twelve million small coffee farmers by large corporations exacerbates this issue. Despite the coffee industry boasting a staggering annual turnover of around $200 billion, these farmers receive less than ten percent of the total revenue.
The pricing dynamics further illustrate the disparity, with green coffee prices increasing by approximately 60 percent over the past 30 years, while prices for coffee products have soared by a staggering 600 percent. This discrepancy underscores the challenges faced by coffee farmers and the need for a more equitable distribution of profits throughout the supply chain.
Efforts to address the impacts of climate change on coffee production have been underway for over a decade, with numerous pilot projects initiated. However, as Hütz-Adams points out, the financial constraints of coffee farmers hinder the success of these projects. Investing in climate adaptation while burdened by debt and uncertain returns on future harvests discourages these farmers from participating in such initiatives.
To navigate these challenges successfully, alternative market structures, long-term contracts, support measures, and guaranteed procurement prices must be established. Only through a comprehensive and sustainable approach can the global community hope to secure the future of coffee production in the face of climate change. The impending threat to this cherished commodity requires urgent attention and collaborative efforts to ensure a thriving and resilient coffee industry for generations to come.
