Dubai – Qahwa World
Global coffee futures climbed as stocks registered on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continued to shrink, tightening availability and pushing traders to reprice risk. December Arabica (KCZ25) rose about 1.78%, while November Robusta (RMX25) gained roughly 1.9%, reflecting increased buying interest across both contracts.
The market has been reacting to a notable decline in ICE-tracked inventories: Arabica holdings dropped to roughly 534,665 bags, a low not seen in about 18 months, and Robusta balances fell to near 6,237 lots, the lowest in a few months. A major contributor to tighter U.S. supplies has been new trade barriers: a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports has prompted some American buyers to cancel or delay contracts, and because Brazil supplies about one-third of U.S. unroasted coffee, the effect has been pronounced.
Weather worries have compounded supply concerns. Key Arabica zones in Brazil — notably Minas Gerais — received barely measurable rainfall in early October, raising alarms about the crop’s flowering stage for 2026/27. Forecasters have also increased the odds of a La Niña episode through the October–December window, a pattern that can bring drier conditions to Brazil and add further downside pressure to yields.
Still, the global picture contains mixed signals. The International Coffee Organization reported a small year-on-year rise in exports for the current marketing window, pointing to continuing flows of coffee around the world. At the same time, Vietnam’s strong Robusta shipments — up double digits year-to-date — are helping keep robusta markets supplied.
Brazilian crop agencies and exporters have trimmed recent estimates or recorded export slowdowns: domestic forecasts for Arabica output have been revised lower and export volumes in some months have fallen sharply from year-earlier levels. Conversely, U.S. Department of Agriculture outlooks point to a modest increase in total world production for 2025/26, driven largely by a stronger Robusta harvest, while some trade houses continue to flag an Arabica shortfall.
The interplay of shrinking registered stocks, tariff-driven trade shifts and weather risks leaves prices vulnerable to swings — and keeps market attention trained on inventories, crop forecasts and buyer behavior in the coming weeks.
