- Nicaragua expects a strong coffee harvest of 2.58 million bags in 2025/2026, supported by high prices and improved rainfall, despite persistent credit, labor, and export challenges.
Nicaragua is preparing for a strong coffee season in 2025/2026, with total production forecast at 2.58 million 60-kg bags, matching historical averages. The optimism among producers is driven by higher international prices—averaging above $280 per bag in early 2025—which have encouraged farmers to invest in fertilizers and field maintenance. Expectations for a more balanced rainy season under ENSO-neutral conditions are also contributing to a positive outlook. However, structural issues such as limited access to long-term credit, severe labor shortages, and export bottlenecks continue to cloud the sector’s long-term performance.
The previous marketing year, 2024/2025, marked a recovery for Nicaraguan coffee production, which rose to 2.56 million bags following a 10% drop the year before due to El Niño weather disruptions. While the second half of 2024 brought favorable rainfall and supported flowering, extended rains into December and January complicated the harvest and drying process. These delays, coupled with a compressed ripening period across different altitudes, worsened labor shortages and drove up wages. Many pickers demanded double their usual pay, leading to higher production costs and, in some regions, compromised bean quality.
Adding to the uncertainty, one of Nicaragua’s largest exporters filed for bankruptcy just before the 2024 harvest, causing disruptions in the supply chain and reducing market confidence. At the same time, a sharp price surge in late 2024 created liquidity issues for buyers and delayed shipments, particularly as Central American ports struggled with congestion and slow processing.
Despite these obstacles, coffee producers remain hopeful. Nicaraguan coffee continues to be in strong global demand, praised for its smooth and consistent flavor. Many cooperatives and exporters are certified under programs such as Rainforest Alliance and Fair Trade, allowing them to fetch above-average market prices. With such demand and premium positioning, farmers are more willing to invest in crop maintenance.
The total planted area for 2025/2026 is expected to remain at 143,000 hectares, with 141,000 hectares harvested. However, continued outbound migration over the last five years has reduced the available workforce, especially in rural areas, limiting the ability to expand or renew plantations. Since the coffee leaf rust outbreak in 2013, farmers have replanted approximately 20,000 hectares—about 14% of the total arabica area—but this pace is still below the ideal renewal rate. Experts recommend renewing at least 5% of coffee land annually to maintain long-term productivity, but most farms only replant when older trees die or become infected.
Arabica coffee dominates Nicaragua’s production, making up over 95% of output. The most common variety remains Caturra, followed by Bourbon, Paca, Catuai, Catimore, Maragogype, and Pacamara. Meanwhile, robusta production has remained stagnant, contributing about 160,000 bags annually. With the 2023 closure of Mercon, a major promoter of robusta in Nicaragua, some farmers have abandoned expansion plans in lower-altitude regions where robusta is suitable. Today, only about 7,000 hectares are planted with robusta, mostly in the Southern Caribbean Coast near Nueva Guinea.
Nicaragua’s average yield for arabica coffee is projected to remain at 18 bags per hectare for the upcoming season, assuming consistent rainfall and good farming practices. This matches the improved yield seen in 2024/2025 after the El Niño-driven decline the year before. Ongoing efforts from international projects like MOCCA, led by the USDA and World Coffee Research, have improved seed quality, certified nurseries, and expanded access to higher-yielding varieties like Marsellesa, Parainema, and IH Café 90. However, limited financing remains a major barrier to widespread adoption of these innovations.
Within the local market, per capita coffee consumption is forecast to remain at 1.5 kilograms in 2025/2026. However, a growing trend is emerging, especially among young consumers in urban areas, who are increasingly choosing high-quality roasted coffee. This has led to a boom in coffee shops in cities like Managua, offering everything from espresso to cold brew. While this shift reflects a modernization of coffee culture, broader consumption growth is held back by economic pressures, rising food costs, and continued emigration.
On the export front, Nicaragua is expected to ship 2.42 million bags in 2025/2026, a modest recovery after a 15% drop in 2023/2024. The United States remains Nicaragua’s top market, accounting for about 50% of all exports, particularly high-quality arabica beans favored by specialty roasters and cafés. The European Union is the second-largest destination, taking in around 30% of exports, especially organic and certified coffees which remain in strong demand.
However, global market uncertainty, weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, and supply chain stress are driving prices up, creating both opportunities and challenges for Nicaraguan exporters. High prices improve margins but also increase volatility, and delays at regional ports may continue to affect shipments in the coming season.
Nicaragua’s coffee sector, which employs more than 330,000 people across the value chain, remains one of the country’s most vital economic engines. Still, the road ahead will require coordinated efforts to overcome financial constraints, modernize infrastructure, and stabilize labor supply if producers are to maintain their position in the highly competitive global coffee market.