Dubai, 12 August 2025 (Qahwa World) – The global coffee market saw a sharp rally at the start of August, with September Arabica futures (KCU25) rising by 14.00 cents (+4.53%) to hit a seven-week high, while September Robusta futures (RMU25) climbed 188 points (+5.28%) to a four-week high. The surge was fueled by clear signs of tightening supply in the world’s largest producing countries, driven by lower exports and falling inventories.
Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that the country’s exports of unroasted coffee in July dropped 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons. At the same time, ICE-monitored Arabica inventories fell to a 14.5-month low of 738,095 bags, while Robusta stocks declined to a two-week low of 6,981 lots.
Markets are closely watching the United States’ stance on import tariffs, as President Trump has yet to announce an exemption for coffee from the 50% import duty on Brazilian exports — a move that could impact U.S. sales and boost domestic inventories in Brazil.
In weather developments, Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-growing region, recorded 4.8 mm of rainfall during the week ending 9 August, amounting to 109% of the historical average, easing drought concerns. Harvest progress remains swift, with Safras & Mercado estimating that 94% of the 2025/2026 crop had been completed as of 6 August (99% for Robusta and 91% for Arabica). Cooxupé, the country’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported its members had harvested 74% of their crop by 1 August.
Globally, the International Coffee Organization’s monthly report showed that June exports rose 7.3% year-on-year to 11.69 million bags, while cumulative exports from October to June slipped 0.2%.
In recent months, prices have faced downward pressure from expectations of abundant supply. In June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast Brazil’s 2025/2026 coffee production at 65 million bags (+0.5%), and Vietnam’s output at 31 million bags (+6.9%, the highest in four years). The USDA also projected record global output of 178.68 million bags (+2.5%), with Arabica production down 1.7% and Robusta production up 7.9%. Ending stocks are expected to rise 4.9% to 22.82 million bags.
Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe) reported that June green coffee exports fell 31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 27% and Robusta down 42%. In Vietnam, 2023/2024 production dropped 20% year-on-year due to drought, hitting a four-year low, while exports from January to July 2025 rose 6.9% to 1.05 million metric tons.
Volcafe projects that the global Arabica market will post a deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/2026, compared to a 5.5 million-bag deficit in 2024/2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.
