2024.. Год испытаний и достижений для мирового рынка кофе

2024.. Год испытаний и достижений для мирового рынка кофе

2024 год стал настоящим испытанием для рынка кофе, ознаменовавшись беспрецедентными рекордами и значительными колебаниями цен, которые отразились на производителях, трейдерах и потребителях. Год начался с цены на кофе арабика в 177 центов за фунт, а к 9 декабря она достигла исторического максимума в 348,35 центов за фунт, что составило ошеломляющий рост на 171,50 центов. К концу года цена составила 319,75 центов за фунт, что на 80% выше уровня января.

Арабика: Идеальный шторм между спросом и предложением

Резкий рост цен на арабику обусловлен классической динамикой спроса и предложения. Ключевые страны-производители, такие как Гондурас и Перу, сообщили о снижении урожая примерно на 15%, а прогнозы по следующему урожаю в Бразилии на 2025 год оказались ниже ожиданий. Ранние данные из полей Бразилии, подкрепленные декабрьским прогнозом Volcafe о дефиците в 11 миллионов мешков из-за засухи, подтвердили опасения. Если этот дефицит подтвердится, это может привести к пятому подряд году глобального дефицита кофе.

По оценкам Volcafe, производство арабики в Бразилии составит всего 34,4 миллиона мешков, что создает разрыв между спросом и предложением в 8,5 миллиона мешков в сезоне 2025–2026 годов.

Робуста: Параллельная история дефицита

Цены на робусту превзошли арабику в процентном соотношении, начав 2024 год с $2 570 за метрическую тонну и закрывшись на уровне $4 875 за тонну, что составляет рост на 89,5%. Урожай во Вьетнаме в сезоне 2022/23 оказался ниже ожиданий, и надежды возлагаются на текущий сезон. С учетом высоких цен на робусту, давление на арабику остается значительным, что снижает вероятность значительного падения цен в ближайшем будущем.

Спекулянты и рост цен на кофе

Хотя дефицит предложения стал основным драйвером роста, спекулянты значительно усилили этот тренд. Кофе стал одним из самых успешных товаров 2024 года, привлекая инвесторов, стремящихся заработать на росте. Сильные чистые длинные позиции спекулянтов указывают на их уверенность в дальнейшем росте, хотя предсказать вершину практически невозможно.

Эффект доллара: Палка о двух концах

Дополнительным фактором в 2024 году стала необычайная сила американского доллара. Рост доллара, обусловленный устойчивостью экономики США, умеренной монетарной политикой и геополитическими факторами, усилил влияние цен на европейских и британских обжарщиков. Например, сравнение пиков 2011 и 2024 годов показывает, как валютные колебания усугубляют проблему:

  • 2011: 300 центов/фунт при курсе GBP/USD 1,60 = £4 133/метрическая тонна
  • 2024: 320 центов/фунт при курсе GBP/USD 1,25 = £5 643/метрическая тонна

Эти различия подчеркивают сложность, связанную с валютными колебаниями, особенно для международных покупателей.

Взгляд в будущее: как справиться с вызовами?

Как показал 2024 год, высокие цены на кофе оказывают цепной эффект по всей цепочке поставок. От производителей и экспортеров до обжарщиков и потребителей — финансовое давление требует адаптации и устойчивости. Многие обжарщики уже повысили цены, и, вероятно, потребуется дальнейшее их повышение для обеспечения устойчивости.

Несмотря на неопределенность 2025 года, уроки 2024 года ясны: индустрия кофе должна быть готова к дальнейшей волатильности. Следите за нашими еженедельными обновлениями рынка, чтобы быть в курсе всех изменений.

Пристегните ремни — 2025 год обещает стать еще одной незабываемой главой в истории кофе.

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:en]

Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms.

Information we collect

The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number.

How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
  • Provide, operate, and maintain our website
  • Improve, personalize, and expand our website
  • Understand and analyze how you use our website
  • Develop new products, services, features, and functionality
  • Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes
  • Send you emails
  • Find and prevent fraud

Log Files

Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

Google DoubleClick DART Cookie

Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads

Our Advertising Partners

Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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