تقرير سوق القهوة: مايو 2024  أسعار القهوة العالمية تشهد تقلبات وسط قوى السوق الديناميكية

تقرير سوق القهوة: مايو 2024 أسعار القهوة العالمية تشهد تقلبات وسط قوى السوق الديناميكية

شهد سوق القهوة في مايو 2024 تقلبات ملحوظة تأثرت بتلاقي مجموعة من العوامل الاقتصادية والبيئية واللوجستية. يقدم التقرير الأخير من DRWakefield، وهي شركة تجارية مستقلة معروفة في مجال القهوة، تحليلاً عميقاً لهذه التطورات، مقدماً رؤى للتجار والمنتجين وعشاق القهوة.

تأسست DRWakefield في لندن عام 1970 على يد ديريك واكيفيلد، والد المالك الحالي سيمون واكيفيلد. اكتسبت الشركة سمعة طيبة لتوريد القهوة من النوعية المتخصصة والعادية على حد سواء لعملاء متنوعين، من المحامص الصغيرة الخاصة إلى الشركات متعددة الجنسيات الكبيرة. تستمر الشركة في العمل تحت ملكية سيمون واكيفيلد، وتحافظ على فلسفتها في بناء علاقات قوية وفهم احتياجات العملاء. مع مكاتبها في لندن وفيلنيوس ومستودعاتها الأوروبية، تظل DRWakefield ملتزمة بتقديم القهوة المناسبة لعملائها العالميين.

تحركات السوق والمضاربة

شهد مايو مشاعر مختلطة في سوق القهوة، حيث تميزت بميول متفائلة وتشاؤمية متناوبة. في بداية الشهر، سادت توقعات متفائلة مع توقعات بنقص الإمدادات المحتمل بسبب العوامل العالمية المختلفة. ومع ذلك، تم تخفيف هذا التفاؤل بإشارات تشاؤمية مع تقدم الشهر:

  • مشاعر متفائلة: كانت الحماسة الأولية في السوق مدفوعة بالمخاوف من نقص الإمدادات من المناطق الرئيسية المنتجة للقهوة، تفاقمت بسبب التحديات البيئية والزحام اللوجستي. أدى ذلك إلى ارتفاع في أسعار عقود القهوة الآجلة.
  • اتجاهات تشاؤمية: مع تزايد مخزونات التقييم المعلقة، تغيرت مشاعر السوق. أشارت الزيادة في مخزونات التقييم المعلقة، التي لم يتم تصديقها بعد، إلى تدفق محتمل للإمدادات، مما دفع الأسعار إلى الانخفاض وأشار إلى توقعات تشاؤمية للسوق.

المخزونات المعتمدة وديناميات العرض

شهدت المخزونات المعتمدة من القهوة، التي تعتبر أساسية للحفاظ على استقرار السوق، تقلبات كبيرة:

  • انخفاض المخزونات المعتمدة: كان هناك انخفاض ملحوظ في المخزونات المعتمدة، مما يعكس الطلب المرتفع والسحب الكبير من المستودعات العالمية. يشير هذا الانخفاض عادة إلى ثقة السوق في مستويات الإمداد الحالية ولكنه يثير القلق بشأن التوافر المستقبلي.
  • مخاوف الإمداد: أدى انخفاض المخزونات المعتمدة مع الطلب الفوري العالي إلى حالة من التراجع في السوق، حيث كانت أسعار الشهر الأقرب أعلى من أسعار الشهور المستقبلية. تسلط هذه الحالة الضوء على مخاوف الإمداد الفوري وضيق السوق.

تأثير دورات الإنتاج الثنائية

أثرت دورات الإنتاج الثنائية في المناطق الرئيسية لزراعة القهوة بشكل كبير على استقرار السوق:

  • زيادة الإنتاج وتعديل السوق: تنتج أشجار القهوة عادة محاصيل أكبر في سنوات متناوبة. أدت المحاصيل الكبيرة من العام السابق إلى توقعات بانخفاض الإنتاج هذا العام، مما ساهم في تقلب الأسعار حيث قام التجار بتعديل توقعاتهم وفقاً لذلك.

مؤشرات فنية ومشاعر السوق

قدمت عدة مؤشرات فنية رؤى حول اتجاهات السوق وسلوك المتداولين:

  • مؤشر القوة النسبية (RSI): أشار مؤشر القوة النسبية إلى أن السوق كان مشبعاً بالشراء في بداية الشهر، مما يعني أن الأسعار ارتفعت بسرعة كبيرة. تم تأكيد ذلك لاحقاً مع تعديل الأسعار إلى الأسفل، مما يشير إلى تصحيح السوق.
  • تقرير التزام المتداولين (COT): كشف تقرير التزام المتداولين عن مشاعر مختلطة بين المشاركين في السوق. زاد المضاربون، المعروفون أيضاً باسم “الأموال”، من مراكزهم القصيرة، متوقعين انخفاض الأسعار، بينما قام المتداولون التجاريون بالتحوط ضد المخاطر المحتملة بالحفاظ على مراكزهم.

العوامل الاقتصادية والتأثيرات العالمية

لعبت الظروف الاقتصادية دوراً حاسماً في تشكيل ديناميات سوق القهوة:

  • مؤشر أسعار المستهلك (CPI): أدى ارتفاع التضخم، كما هو منعكس في مؤشر أسعار المستهلك، إلى زيادة التكاليف عبر سلسلة إمدادات القهوة. أثرت هذه الضغوط التضخمية على كل شيء من تكاليف الإنتاج إلى رسوم الشحن، مما أثر على أسعار القهوة بشكل عام.
  • السياسات النقدية الصقورية: اعتمدت البنوك المركزية الرئيسية سياسات نقدية صقورية بهدف كبح التضخم، مما أدى إلى زيادة معدلات الفائدة. أثرت هذه السياسات على قيم العملات، خاصة الدولار الأمريكي، مما أثر بدوره على أسعار القهوة دولياً.

التحديات اللوجستية والشحن

واصلت القضايا اللوجستية والشحن العالمية تعقيد تجارة القهوة:

  • نقص الحاويات وازدحام الموانئ: أدت النقص المستمر في حاويات الشحن والازدحام في الموانئ الرئيسية إلى تأخيرات وزيادة التكاليف. تسببت هذه التحديات اللوجستية في اضطرابات في سلسلة التوريد، مما ساهم في تقلبات السوق.
  • تأثير على تجارة القهوة: أثرت التأخيرات في الشحن وزيادة تكاليف النقل على التسليم في الوقت المناسب للقهوة، مما أثر على الأسعار الفورية وعقود العقود الآجلة.

التوقعات المستقبلية

مع النظر إلى المستقبل، من المتوقع أن يظل سوق القهوة ديناميكياً، مع تأثيرات متنوعة على تحركات الأسعار واستقرار السوق:

  • مراقبة المخزونات المعتمدة: سيكون مستوى المخزونات المعتمدة مؤشراً حاسماً لصحة السوق. يجب على التجار وأصحاب المصالح مراقبة التغييرات في هذه المخزونات لقياس ظروف الإمداد.
  • عوامل الإنتاج والبيئة: ستستمر دورات الإنتاج الثنائية والظروف البيئية في المناطق الرئيسية لزراعة القهوة في لعب دور كبير في تشكيل ديناميات السوق.
  • التطورات الاقتصادية والسياسات: ستؤثر الظروف الاقتصادية العالمية والسياسات النقدية على مشاعر السوق واستراتيجيات التسعير. يجب أن يظل التجار يقظين بشأن التغييرات في معدلات الفائدة واتجاهات التضخم.

في الختام، كان مايو 2024 شهراً مليئاً بالتقلبات في سوق القهوة، مدفوعاً بتفاعل معقد لعوامل العرض والطلب، والعوامل الاقتصادية، والتحديات اللوجستية. سيكون على التجار وأصحاب المصالح التنقل بعناية في هذه التعقيدات، مع موازنة التحركات السوقية القصيرة الأجل مع الاعتبارات الطويلة الأجل لاتخاذ قرارات مستنيرة في سوق القهوة المتطور باستمرار.

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:en]

Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms.

Information we collect

The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number.

How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
  • Provide, operate, and maintain our website
  • Improve, personalize, and expand our website
  • Understand and analyze how you use our website
  • Develop new products, services, features, and functionality
  • Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes
  • Send you emails
  • Find and prevent fraud

Log Files

Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

Google DoubleClick DART Cookie

Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads

Our Advertising Partners

Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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