Dubai – Qahwa World
A fresh escalation in the Middle East at the end of February has sent new shockwaves through global logistics, adding to an already fragile maritime environment shaped by two years of Red Sea disruption and intensifying geopolitical risk.
- Strait of Hormuz Slowdown Raises Cost Fears
As of 28 February, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints — has slowed dramatically amid heightened security risks. Several carriers, including CMA CGM, have introduced Emergency Conflict Surcharges to offset rising insurance premiums and security-related operating costs.
While coffee shipments do not transit the Strait directly, the knock-on effects are significant. Gulf producers account for roughly 20% of global crude oil supply, and oil prices hovering around $70 per barrel are widely expected to face upward pressure. With bunker fuel representing about 40% of vessel operating costs, further increases in Bunker Adjustment Factors appear likely.
Higher fuel bills, combined with longer routings already in place, are expected to weigh on transit times, vessel availability and global freight rates. For coffee traders, that translates into longer sailing schedules, potential equipment imbalances, reduced schedule reliability and renewed upward pressure on ocean freight costs.
- The situation remains fluid.
Red Sea: A Crisis Entering Its Third Year
More than two years after the first Houthi missile struck a commercial vessel in the Red Sea, the industry continues to absorb the consequences of one of the most disruptive trade shocks in decades.
The crisis began in November 2023, when Houthi forces seized the Galaxy Leader and launched a sustained campaign targeting merchant vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At its peak, more than 100 ships were targeted. Traffic volumes through the Red Sea fell by roughly 60%, forcing carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
Those diversions added between 10 and 14 sailing days, absorbed global capacity and destabilized schedules across major East–West trade lanes.
A Gaza ceasefire toward the end of 2025 briefly encouraged hopes of normalization. Some carriers began adjusting fleet plans in anticipation of a return to Suez routings. However, renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh Houthi threats have reversed those plans. All major carriers are currently continuing voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.
- Carrier Responses
Maersk has confirmed that its Middle East–India–U.S. East Coast (MECL) service, originally intended to transit the Red Sea, will be cancelled and rerouted around Africa.
CMA CGM, which had initially led efforts to resume Suez transits, has since withdrawn from most crossings and reverted to previous sailing patterns.
Across the Asia–Europe trade, most services remain diverted, with carriers unwilling to recommit until sustained security assurances emerge.
Roughly 12% of global seaborne trade depends on the Suez Canal — an exposure that underscores the structural vulnerability of the system. Industry leaders now emphasize improved data, faster decision-making and scenario planning as essential tools in a landscape defined by prolonged uncertainty.
- Hapag-Lloyd Moves to Acquire Zim in $4.2 Billion Deal
Amid the geopolitical turbulence, consolidation continues.
Hapag-Lloyd has agreed to acquire Israeli carrier Zim in a $4.2 billion cash deal, offering $35 per share — a 58% premium to Zim’s share price as of 20 February. The transaction would elevate the Frankfurt-listed group to the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line.
Chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said the combined network would significantly strengthen services across the Transpacific, Intra-Asia, Atlantic, Latin America and East Mediterranean trades.
To address Israeli government concerns — it holds a golden share in Zim and considers it a strategic asset — Hapag-Lloyd will carve out a separate Israel-focused operator owned by FIMI, launching with 16 vessels.
The transaction is expected to close in late 2026, subject to shareholder, government and regulatory approval.
- U.S. Maritime Plan Revives Port Fee Debate
In Washington, the Trump administration has unveiled a long-awaited Maritime Action Plan (MAP), reviving a controversial proposal to levy fees on foreign-built vessels calling at U.S. ports.
The 36-page plan outlines a four-pillar strategy aimed at rebuilding U.S. shipbuilding capacity, modernizing maritime training, protecting industrial infrastructure and strengthening national security.
At its core is a proposed per-kilogram fee on imported cargo discharged by foreign-built ships. Modeled between $0.01 and $0.25 per kilogram, the levy could generate approximately $66 billion over a decade at the low end — and up to $1.5 trillion at the high end — significantly exceeding the short-lived port fees introduced in 2025.
President Donald Trump framed the initiative as central to industrial revival, calling for hundreds of billions of dollars in new investment in American shipyards.
Carriers and trade partners, however, have warned that such measures would increase landed costs, distort routing economics and potentially trigger retaliation.
The plan also references bridge strategies, including limited foreign construction tied to U.S. investment commitments, and financing mechanisms such as Title XI and Capital Construction Funds. No firm execution timeline has been announced.
- Freight Rates: Market Turns Softer in Early 2026
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reading of 1,251.46 on 13 February 2026 reflects a market transitioning toward lower and more volatile rates.
Spot rates for 40-foot high cube containers from Asia to the U.S. West Coast are projected to decline by 30–35% compared with 2025 levels. Although first-quarter seasonality — including pre-Lunar New Year rate increases — has returned, persistent capacity growth and uncertainty surrounding Red Sea developments are expected to keep pressure on spot markets.
- Schedule Reliability Slips Again
Global schedule reliability fell to 62.8% in December 2025, marking the second-lowest reading since May of that year.
European port congestion remains the primary driver, compounded by rerouting challenges linked to the Red Sea crisis.
Cancelled sailings surged 122% in February 2026 compared with January, tightening effective capacity around the Lunar New Year period.
Although overall reliability has improved relative to 2024, performance remains uneven. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd ranked among the most reliable carriers in late 2025, while others reported on-time rates between 50% and 60%.
- Trade Lane Snapshot
APAC to Global: Capacity stable; spot rates declining.
India to Global: Tight capacity; slight upward rate trend.
Brazil to Global: Manageable capacity; continued port congestion and gate window constraints; occasional rollovers; rates stable.
Central America to Global: Tight capacity; container shortages (20’ and 40’) reported in Honduras and Nicaragua.
East Africa to Global: Capacity available; severe congestion at Mombasa.
Port Delays Widen
Operational bottlenecks persist across major gateways:
Antwerp (Belgium): 3-day delay
New York (USA): 4-day delay
London Gateway (UK): 5-day delay
Buenaventura (Colombia): 4-day delay
Santos (Brazil): 5-day delay
India (major ports): 4-day delay
Vietnam: 4-day delay
Mombasa (Kenya): 10-day delay
Australia (major ports): 3-day delay
With vessels queuing at multiple hubs and geopolitical risk layered on top of structural capacity shifts, 2026 is shaping up as another year in which resilience — rather than efficiency — defines the global shipping narrative.
