Исследование Кофейных Хроник: Раскрываем Доклад DRWakefield о Рынке Кофе 2023 года

Исследование Кофейных Хроник: Раскрываем Доклад DRWakefield о Рынке Кофе 2023 года

Год 2023 оказался полным сюрпризов! Экономисты предсказывали глобальную рецессию, вызванную повышением процентных ставок и ростом уровня государственного и частного долга в США и по всему миру. Вопреки ожиданиям, процентные ставки поднялись еще выше, что привело к значительному росту основных фондовых индексов к концу года. Несмотря на падение на 19% в 2022 году, индекс S&P 500 почти полностью восстановил свои убытки, приближаясь к своему историческому максимуму. Вопросы по поводу нерешенных проблем с долгами остаются без ответов, но по мере того как рынок вступает в 2024 год, царит оптимизм, с ожиданием снижения ставок во второй половине года.

Кофе арабика, как отмечено в ежегодном отчете о рынке кофе DRWakefield, в начале 2023 года продавался на уровне 164,65 центнера/фунт, а завершил год на уровне 188,30 центнера/фунт, что отражает заметный рост на 14,4%.. Однако Робуста выделяется существенным ростом на 74,2% в течение года. Предпочтение обжарщиков Робусте в период пандемии поддерживало цены, укрепленные низкими показателями урожая в ключевых странах-производителях.

Динамику валют определяли решения центральных банкиров относительно времени и размера повышения процентных ставок. К концу года все стали хорошо знакомыми с аббревиатурами, такими как FED, BOE, FMOC и J-Pow. Курс евро и фунта закрыли год сильнее, чем начали, и изменения или снижение, которые произойдут в 2024 году, обязательно повлияют на их дальнейшую стойкость.

Ключевые моменты 2023 года:

Январь: Отчет CFTC о COT по состоянию на 17 января показал, что чистая короткая позиция не-коммерческих участников увеличилась до 43 940 лотов, самого низкого уровня с начала пандемии. Рынок достиг своего второго минимума за год 11 января на отметке 145,30 центов за фунт. Однако этот настрой был недолгим, и мы быстро восстановились, закрыв месяц на отметке 177,40 центов за фунт.

Февраль: Из-за проблем, связанных с киберпреступностью, отчет COT не публиковался большую часть месяца. Центральное внимание привлекли показатели инфляции, и рынок кофе достиг максимума 22 февраля, достигнув отметки 187,55 центов за фунт.

Март: Крах Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate и Signature вызвал волнения в мировой финансовой системе. Увеличенный системный риск не ограничивался США; страхи по поводу неликвидности распространились и на крупные европейские банки, такие как Credit Suisse.

Апрель: Около Пасхи рынок кофе пережил настоящий взлет, начиная месяц с отметки 167,65 центов за фунт 1 апреля, достигая максимума 18 апреля на отметке 197,90 центов за фунт и закрывая месяц на отметке 180,45 центов за фунт 28 апреля. Основным двигателем были движения бразильского реала и низкие показатели урожая в ключевых регионах.

Май: Сертифицированные запасы арабики упали до своего минимума за 6 месяцев, достигнув отметки в 598 000 мешков. Это снижение на 12% по сравнению с маем и на 27% за 2023 год обеспечило поддержку рынку при входе в июнь.

Июнь: Были зафиксированы новые паузы в повышении ставок центральными банкирами, что заставило некоторых задаться вопросом: «Не закончились ли подъемы ставок?» FED удерживал ставку Федеральных фондов в диапазоне 5-5,25%, но указывал на то, что это всего лишь пауза. Лагард, с другой стороны, заявила, что еще много работы предстоит: «Закончили ли мы? Мы не на месте. У нас еще есть путь перед собой. Мы еще не достигли нашей цели. Есть ли у нас еще земля, которую нужно охватить? Да…»

Июль: Первая половина июля была самым сильным периодом года для фунта стерлингов (1,30) и евро (1,12), но мы наблюдали стабильное снижение с этого момента до середины октября. Колумбийские дифференциалы кофе продолжали снижаться, и другие происхождения думали о том, как долго им нужно будет адаптировать свои цены или продавать всю оставшуюся продукцию. Большинство производителей Центральной Америки смогли этого избежать, но перуанцы с особой осторожностью следили за тем, чтобы не стать дороже Колумбии на слишком долгий период.

Август: К концу месяца бразильский урожай был завершен на более чем 75%, и мы начали получать более точные оценки объема урожая на год. Cooxupe, крупнейшая кооперативная организация Бразилии, ожидала почти 6,5 миллиона мешков, что составляет увеличение почти на 30% по сравнению с предыдущим годом.

Сентябрь: Погода в Бразилии вновь стала главной темой обсуждения, и мы перешли от обсуждения текущего урожая к дождям и развитию цветков для урожая 2024/5 года. Нам нравится говорить о погоде в Англии, но мы также любим обсуждать бразильскую погоду в кофейной индустрии! Сочетание сниженного уровня осадков и высоких температур представляло потенциальный риск для урожая, хотя стоит отметить, что ожидалось, что бразильский урожай 2024/2025 года будет крупным. Тем не менее, это не помешало рынку падать к концу месяца.

Октябрь: И это не помешало рынку достигнуть годового минимума 10 октября на уровне 145 центов за фунт! Однако, как видно из графика ниже, мы не задерживались там надолго. Рынок кофе провел последний квартал взлетая, на короткое время превысив 200 центов за фунт, прежде чем закрыть год на отметке 188,30 центов за фунт (потеряв 8,9 центов за последний день года).

Ноябрь: Однако не только рынок был взлетающим. Курс евро и фунта продолжали свой налет с октября и заканчивали год сильными. Moody’s понизило перспективу кредитного рейтинга США, указывая на значительные дефициты, растущие затраты на проценты и политические неопределенности. Это тяжело отразилось на долларе США до кратковременного отступления перед резким возвратом, когда наступил декабрь, закрыв год на отметке 1,10 и 1,27 соответственно.

Декабрь: Mercon Coffee Group, как отражено в годовом отчете DRWakefield DRW, подал заявление о банкротстве. Эта новость больше всего затронула Никарагуа, где Mercon имел самую большую долю рынка. Неопределенность относительно будущего бизнеса продолжается в новом году. Рынок также начал обсуждать не «если», а «когда» Федеральная резервная система снизит ставки в 2024 году. Посмотрим, что принесет этот год, здоровья вам!)»

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[:ar]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:en]

Privacy Policy for Qahwa World

At Qahwa World, accessible from https://qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by Qahwa World and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in Qahwa World. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator.

Consent

By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms.

Information we collect

The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number.

How we use your information

We use the information we collect in various ways, including to:
  • Provide, operate, and maintain our website
  • Improve, personalize, and expand our website
  • Understand and analyze how you use our website
  • Develop new products, services, features, and functionality
  • Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes
  • Send you emails
  • Find and prevent fraud

Log Files

Qahwa World follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information.

Cookies and Web Beacons

Like any other website, Qahwa World uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website.

Google DoubleClick DART Cookie

Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads

Our Advertising Partners

Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below.

Advertising Partners Privacy Policies

You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of Qahwa World. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on Qahwa World, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that Qahwa World has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers.

Third Party Privacy Policies

Qahwa World's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites.

CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information)

Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

GDPR Data Protection Rights

We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us.

Children's Information

Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. Qahwa World does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:ru]Privacy Policy for qahwa world At qahwaworld, accessible from qahwaworld.com, one of our main priorities is the privacy of our visitors. This Privacy Policy document contains types of information that is collected and recorded by qahwaworld and how we use it. If you have additional questions or require more information about our Privacy Policy, do not hesitate to contact us. This Privacy Policy applies only to our online activities and is valid for visitors to our website with regards to the information that they shared and/or collect in qahwaworld. This policy is not applicable to any information collected offline or via channels other than this website. Our Privacy Policy was created with the help of the Free Privacy Policy Generator. Consent By using our website, you hereby consent to our Privacy Policy and agree to its terms. Information we collect The personal information that you are asked to provide, and the reasons why you are asked to provide it, will be made clear to you at the point we ask you to provide your personal information. If you contact us directly, we may receive additional information about you such as your name, email address, phone number, the contents of the message and/or attachments you may send us, and any other information you may choose to provide. When you register for an Account, we may ask for your contact information, including items such as name, company name, address, email address, and telephone number. How we use your information We use the information we collect in various ways, including to: Provide, operate, and maintain our website Improve, personalize, and expand our website Understand and analyze how you use our website Develop new products, services, features, and functionality Communicate with you, either directly or through one of our partners, including for customer service, to provide you with updates and other information relating to the website, and for marketing and promotional purposes Send you emails Find and prevent fraud Log Files qahwaworld follows a standard procedure of using log files. These files log visitors when they visit websites. All hosting companies do this and a part of hosting services' analytics. The information collected by log files include internet protocol (IP) addresses, browser type, Internet Service Provider (ISP), date and time stamp, referring/exit pages, and possibly the number of clicks. These are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable. The purpose of the information is for analyzing trends, administering the site, tracking users' movement on the website, and gathering demographic information. Cookies and Web Beacons Like any other website, qahwaworld uses 'cookies'. These cookies are used to store information including visitors' preferences, and the pages on the website that the visitor accessed or visited. The information is used to optimize the users' experience by customizing our web page content based on visitors' browser type and/or other information. For more general information on cookies, please read the Cookies article on Generate Privacy Policy website. Google DoubleClick DART Cookie Google is one of a third-party vendor on our site. It also uses cookies, known as DART cookies, to serve ads to our site visitors based upon their visit to www.website.com and other sites on the internet. However, visitors may choose to decline the use of DART cookies by visiting the Google ad and content network Privacy Policy at the following URL – https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Our Advertising Partners Some of advertisers on our site may use cookies and web beacons. Our advertising partners are listed below. Each of our advertising partners has their own Privacy Policy for their policies on user data. For easier access, we hyperlinked to their Privacy Policies below. Google https://policies.google.com/technologies/ads Advertising Partners Privacy Policies You may consult this list to find the Privacy Policy for each of the advertising partners of qahwaworld. Third-party ad servers or ad networks uses technologies like cookies, JavaScript, or Web Beacons that are used in their respective advertisements and links that appear on qahwaworld, which are sent directly to users' browser. They automatically receive your IP address when this occurs. These technologies are used to measure the effectiveness of their advertising campaigns and/or to personalize the advertising content that you see on websites that you visit. Note that qahwaworld has no access to or control over these cookies that are used by third-party advertisers. Third Party Privacy Policies qahwaworld's Privacy Policy does not apply to other advertisers or websites. Thus, we are advising you to consult the respective Privacy Policies of these third-party ad servers for more detailed information. It may include their practices and instructions about how to opt-out of certain options. You can choose to disable cookies through your individual browser options. To know more detailed information about cookie management with specific web browsers, it can be found at the browsers' respective websites. CCPA Privacy Rights (Do Not Sell My Personal Information) Under the CCPA, among other rights, California consumers have the right to: Request that a business that collects a consumer's personal data disclose the categories and specific pieces of personal data that a business has collected about consumers. Request that a business delete any personal data about the consumer that a business has collected. Request that a business that sells a consumer's personal data, not sell the consumer's personal data. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. GDPR Data Protection Rights We would like to make sure you are fully aware of all of your data protection rights. Every user is entitled to the following: The right to access – You have the right to request copies of your personal data. We may charge you a small fee for this service. The right to rectification – You have the right to request that we correct any information you believe is inaccurate. You also have the right to request that we complete the information you believe is incomplete. The right to erasure – You have the right to request that we erase your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to restrict processing – You have the right to request that we restrict the processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to object to processing – You have the right to object to our processing of your personal data, under certain conditions. The right to data portability – You have the right to request that we transfer the data that we have collected to another organization, or directly to you, under certain conditions. If you make a request, we have one month to respond to you. If you would like to exercise any of these rights, please contact us. Children's Information Another part of our priority is adding protection for children while using the internet. We encourage parents and guardians to observe, participate in, and/or monitor and guide their online activity. qahwaworld does not knowingly collect any Personal Identifiable Information from children under the age of 13. If you think that your child provided this kind of information on our website, we strongly encourage you to contact us immediately and we will do our best efforts to promptly remove such information from our records.[:]
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