An Industry Perspective from Ethiopia
By Gizat Worku Kebede, General Manager of the Ethiopian Coffee Exporters Association.
Global coffee production is increasing; its price, meanwhile, is decreasing.
According to the new global coffee production forecast released on February 25, 2026, the world is set to produce a volume it has never seen before. Rabobank forecasts production of 180 million 60-kg bags global consumption, signaling continued supply expansion and potential downward pressure on prices.
Additional analyses highlight speculative fund liquidation and surplus conditions as contributing factors to price volatility. HedgePoint Global Markets forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 exports at 47 million bags — a historical high — reinforcing expectations of softer price conditions.
The average price of Brazilian Natural coffee in the New York market declined from USD 3.43 per pound in January to USD 3.09 in February. This movement reflects prevailing market dynamics and broader supply-demand conditions.
The World Bank projects an average 13% price adjustment in 2026 compared to 2025 levels.
For Ethiopian exporters and suppliers, alignment between domestic pricing and global market trends remains essential for competitiveness and sustainable market participation. Price structures that reflect international benchmarks help safeguard export flows and foreign currency earnings in a volatile market environment.
This perspective is offered as an industry contribution to informed discussion on global coffee market developments.
