U.S. Tariff on Brazilian Coffee Threatens Middle East Coffee Market

By: Lee Safar, host of The Daily Coffee Pro Podcast and founder of Map It Forward

The looming 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee has traders in the U.S. racing to land shipments before the August 1 deadline. Market observers expect Brazilian beans to be redirected toward Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

Even though the tariff does not directly affect Middle Eastern import duties, it could raise global prices as U.S. buyers compete for non-Brazilian coffee and as supply chains adjust. The Middle East’s specialty coffee scene, which relies heavily on imported green beans, is therefore facing potential disruptions in pricing, availability, and quality.

What does this mean for buyers and roasters in the Middle East?

• Higher Costs: With U.S. demand shifting to African and Central American origins, Middle Eastern roasters may face increased competition for those coffees and higher freight rates. It may become more economical to secure contracts for Brazilian beans destined for non-U.S. markets.

• Quality Considerations: Brazil is a key origin for blends used in milk-based drinks popular in the Gulf and traditional styles of Arabic coffee. Changing supply patterns (e.g. the shift away from specialty coffee) could affect flavour profiles and consistency.

• Cash-Flow Planning: Buyers should consider locking in prices or increasing inventory ahead of expected volatility.

Additionally, although Middle Eastern roasters do not export large volumes to Europe, the EU’s new deforestation rule is still relevant. Several importers are already reducing purchases from Ethiopian smallholders because they fear those beans will not be EUDR-compliant. In the medium term, this could make Ethiopian coffee more available and possibly cheaper in non-EU markets. However, the policy could push smaller farmers out of the global supply chain, reducing diversity and putting long-term supply at risk.

Middle Eastern coffee businesses should monitor global policy developments carefully. Diversifying origin portfolios and investing in direct relationships with producers may help mitigate supply-chain disruptions and support farmers facing new regulatory burdens.