Author: Qahwa World – Brasília
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025
Date: June 1, 2026
Brazil Coffee Output to Reach Record 71.9M Bags
Executive Summary
- Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
- Arabica output is expected to surge 25% to 47.5 million bags, ending five years of low harvests.
- Robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags, a slight decline from 25 million bags due to cooler weather and excess rain in some regions.
- Exports for 2026/27 are projected to jump 30% to 49 million bags, supported by the record crop.
- However, low stocks and fears of an El Niño event are making exporters cautious and holding back deals.
- Domestic consumption remains stable at 22.39 million bags, with a 0.5% annual increase.
- The “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” management technique is helping farmers optimize yields and reduce costs.
Brazil is set to produce a record 71.9 million 60‑kg bags of coffee in the 2026/27 season. This is a 14% increase over the previous cycle. The outlook is especially bright for arabica coffee.
Optimal weather in major growing regions has driven the recovery. The record crop follows five years of low arabica production caused by adverse conditions.
Exports are expected to surge 30% to 49 million bags. However, exporters remain cautious. They are holding back on deals because of low stocks and uncertainties about a possible El Niño event.
El Niño could affect the end of the current harvest and the 2027/28 cycle. These factors are strongly influencing coffee prices in the Brazilian market.
Production Outlook
The positive biennial cycle is a key driver. Arabica trees naturally produce more in alternating years. This year is a high‑yield year.
Favorable weather conditions and rising global prices have also encouraged farmers to expand their coffee areas. Technology has enabled higher planting density per hectare.
As a result, total coffee production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags. This is a 14% increase from the 63 million bags estimated for 2025/26.
The National Supply Company (CONAB) projects a slightly lower figure of 66.7 million bags. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) projects 65.1 million bags.
Both official agencies use different methodologies. They have historically provided lower estimates than the USDA.
Arabica and Robusta Performance
Arabica production is forecast to reach 47.5 million bags. This is a 25% increase over the previous cycle. The growth is driven by the positive biennial cycle and expanded cultivated area.
Technological improvements in crop management also played a role. Milder temperatures before flowering supported good crop development.
In contrast, robusta (conilon) production is forecast at 24.4 million bags. This is a slight decline from the 25 million bags estimated for 2025/26.
Colder weather and periods of excessive rainfall reduced yields in some main producing regions. The strong growth of the 2025/26 harvest also made it difficult to sustain the same level of production.
Producers are increasingly worried about climate change. Many are adjusting their practices, seeking more shaded areas, and looking for resilient varieties.
Regional Performance
Minas Gerais remains Brazil’s largest coffee‑producing state. It is forecast to harvest 34.1 million bags in 2026/27, up from 26.7 million in 2025/26.
The increase is due to the positive biennial cycle and better rainfall distribution. Rainfall was especially good before flowering and through March.
Espírito Santo, the second‑largest producer, is forecast at 21.4 million bags. Arabica production there is expected at 4.4 million bags, while robusta accounts for 17 million bags.
São Paulo, which grows only arabica, saw growth of more than 15% over the previous cycle, despite varied weather conditions.
Bahia has now become the second‑largest robusta producer, surpassing Rondônia. Its growth comes from advanced technology and high‑performance irrigated areas.
Rondônia is expected to see a 19% increase in robusta production. Favorable weather and the renewal of crops with higher‑yielding clonal plants are the main reasons.
Table 1: Brazilian Coffee Production by State (million 60‑kg bags)
| State | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minas Gerais | 26.7 | 34.1 | +27.7% |
| Espírito Santo | 20.9 | 21.4 | +2.4% |
| São Paulo | 4.8 | 5.5 | +14.6% |
| Bahia | 4.7 | 5.2 | +10.6% |
| Rondônia | 2.3 | 2.8 | +21.7% |
Prices and Production Costs
Arabica prices rose sharply at the end of 2025 due to limited supply. However, prices started to decrease with the forecast of a larger harvest.
In April 2026, arabica coffee averaged BRL 1,811.87 (USD 360.03) per 60‑kg bag. This was a 5% drop from March and a 28% drop from April 2024.
Robusta prices fell even more. In April 2026, robusta traded at BRL 917.05 (USD 182.26). That was a 10% monthly drop and a 46% drop from April 2025.
Fears of an El Niño event have dampened sales activity. Many producers who were liquidating their remaining stocks are now holding back.
Production costs remain high. Fertilizer prices have risen, and freight costs have increased due to higher diesel prices. Diesel climbed about 24% in March 2026.
To cope, many farmers are adopting the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique. This method divides farms into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning.
As a result, farmers focus only on the plot in its high‑yield phase. The system also increases organic matter and reduces fertilizer needs.
Domestic Consumption and Exports
Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is forecast at 22.39 million bags for 2026/27. This is a slight 0.5% increase over the previous year.
Consumption declined by more than 2% in 2025 due to high prices. However, it recovered in early 2026 as supermarket prices dropped.
In the first four months of 2026, consumption rose 2% compared to the same period in 2025. The average Brazilian drinks about 3.8 cups of coffee per day.
Exports for 2026/27 are forecast to jump 30% to 49 million bags. This is based on the record harvest. However, low stocks have prevented even higher volumes.
Between January and April 2026, Brazil exported 11.5 million bags, a 24% decrease from the same period in 2025. April exports increased 1.2%, signaling a gradual recovery.
Germany remains the top buyer of Brazilian coffee, followed by the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium. The United States holds over 30% of the market share for Brazilian coffee imports.
Specialty coffees accounted for almost 18% of total exports in early 2026, though that volume was 36% lower than the same period in 2025.
Policy and Minimum Prices
The government has allocated BRL 7.37 billion for the 2026/27 Coffee Economy Defense Fund (FUNCAFE). The fund supports crop management, marketing financing, and working capital.
Minimum guaranteed prices for the 2026/27 harvest have been increased. Arabica now has a minimum price of BRL 792.53 per 60‑kg bag, a 20% rise from the previous season.
Robusta’s minimum price was set at BRL 556.97 per bag, a 12% increase. These prices are valid from April 2026 through March 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much coffee will Brazil produce in 2026/27?
Production is forecast at 71.9 million 60‑kg bags, a 14% increase over the previous season.
Why is arabica production expected to surge?
The positive biennial cycle, expanded planted area, technological advances, and favorable weather are the main drivers.
Which Brazilian state produces the most coffee?
Minas Gerais is the largest producer, forecast at 34.1 million bags in 2026/27.
How will El Niño affect Brazilian coffee?
There is a 60% chance of El Niño between May and July 2026. It could negatively impact the 2027/28 harvest through higher temperatures and altered rainfall.
What is the “Zero Crop, 100% Crop” technique?
It is a management method that divides a farm into two plots and alternates skeleton pruning, allowing farmers to focus on high‑yield areas and reduce costs.
What are the main export destinations for Brazilian coffee?
Germany, the United States, Italy, Japan, and Belgium are the top buyers.
Author: Qahwa World – Brasília | Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service – Report BR2026-0025 | Date: June 1, 2026
