Dubai – Qahwa World

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its semi-annual report, “Coffee: World Markets and Trade,” revealing a historic milestone for the industry. While global production is projected to reach an all-time high for the 2025/26 season, the market remains under significant structural pressure. A relentless growth in consumption continues to outpace supply recovery, driving global ending stocks to their lowest levels in years and keeping prices near record peaks.

A Milestone in Global Production

World coffee production for the 2025/26 season is forecast to reach a historic high of 178.8 million bags (60 kilograms each), an increase of 3.5 million bags from the previous year. This surge is primarily driven by a remarkable recovery in Southeast Asia and Africa, which has managed to offset the climate-related losses in traditional Arabica hubs like Brazil and Colombia.

Divergent Fortunes: The Rise of Robusta and Arabica’s Struggle

The report highlights a significant shift in the production landscape:

  • Indonesia’s Rebound: Robusta production is set to surge by 1.7 million bags to reach 11.0 million, thanks to favorable weather and improved labor utilization.

  • Ethiopia’s Transformation: Following a massive three-year initiative to plant higher-yielding varieties, Ethiopia is poised for a record output of 11.6 million bags.

  • Brazil’s Climate Battle: The world’s largest producer faces a split reality. While its Robusta harvest hit a record 25 million bags, its Arabica crop was slashed by 6 million bags due to severe drought and extreme heat in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, bringing total output down to 63 million bags.

  • Vietnam’s Recovery: Production is expected to rebound to 30.8 million bags as high market prices encouraged farmers to invest more in fertilizers and infrastructure.

Consumption Growth and the “Stock Crisis”

Global coffee consumption continues its unrelenting upward trajectory, reaching a projected record of 173.9 million bags. This persistent demand—driven by the European Union, the United States, and emerging markets like China—is outstripping the pace of production.

Consequently, global ending stocks are forecast to decline for the fifth consecutive year, dropping to just 20.1 million bags. This “tight” supply situation explains why the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) composite price index has nearly tripled during this period. The market currently has very little “cushion” to absorb any future weather shocks.

Top 20 Coffee Producing Countries (2025/2026 Forecast)

(Data in 1,000s of 60kg bags)

Rank Country Total Production (Arabica + Robusta)
1 Brazil 63,000
2 Vietnam 30,800
3 Colombia 13,800
4 Indonesia 12,450
5 Ethiopia 11,560
6 Uganda 6,875
7 India 6,050
8 Honduras 5,800
9 Peru 4,200
10 Mexico 3,903
11 Guatemala 3,540
12 Nicaragua 2,580
13 China 1,900
14 Malaysia 1,500
15 Tanzania 1,450
16 Cote d’Ivoire 1,300
17 Costa Rica 1,170
18 Papua New Guinea 950
19 Thailand 900
20 Kenya 850

Top 10 Global Coffee Consumers (2025/2026 Forecast)

(Data in 1,000s of 60kg bags)

Rank Country / Statistical Entity Domestic Consumption
1 European Union 41,870
2 United States 26,550
3 Brazil 22,162
4 Japan 7,550
5 Philippines 6,780
6 China 5,500
7 Indonesia 4,900
8 Canada 4,800
9 Vietnam 3,750
10 Russia 3,610