Coffee Prices Reach Record High as Brazil Farmers Hesitate to Sell

Global Arabica Coffee Prices Soar Amid Farmer Reluctance and Crop Uncertainty

Global arabica coffee prices reached record highs on Monday, fueled by Brazilian farmers’ reluctance to sell due to concerns over the upcoming crop and optimism for even higher prices.

Forward sales for Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop are significantly behind schedule, with only 12% sold to date compared to 19% by this time last year, according to industry data released Friday. The longer-term average for this period stands at 21%.

As the world’s largest producer of arabica beans — a premium variety primarily used in roast and ground blends — Brazil accounts for nearly half of global arabica production. However, the country experienced one of its worst droughts in history last year, raising concerns about the health and productivity of coffee trees.

“The market has been drawing support from expectations that the severe drought last year has left coffee trees lacking the vitality to produce a strong crop,” stated ADMISI, the brokerage division of Archer Daniels Midland, an agricultural trading giant.

Mixed Crop Expectations in Brazil

Despite these concerns, some traders have reported a more optimistic outlook following recent tours of Brazil’s coffee regions. They noted that improved rains over the past several months have boosted crop conditions, with expectations that favorable weather will continue.

Nonetheless, arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange — a benchmark for physical coffee pricing globally — climbed to a record high of $3.5555 per pound earlier on Monday, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 10%. Futures closed at $3.492 per pound, up 0.5% for the day. Meanwhile, robusta coffee futures, often used for instant coffee, dropped 1.5% to $5,460 per metric ton.

Stock Declines and Currency Impact

ICE data further revealed a significant drop in certified arabica stocks, with a decrease of 19,814 bags on Friday, totaling 53,442 bags lost for the week. This leaves global certified stocks at under 1 million bags, a factor underpinning price increases.

Adding to the situation, the Brazilian real has recently strengthened against the U.S. dollar. This currency movement discourages Brazilian farmers from exporting dollar-denominated coffee, as it lowers their returns in local currency terms.

Broader Commodity Movements

In other soft commodities:

• Raw sugar rose 0.8% to 19.17 cents per pound.
• White sugar climbed 1.8% to $507.00 per ton.
• London cocoa prices fell 1.4% to £9,055 per ton.
• New York cocoa prices declined 1.7% to $11,219 per ton.