Coffee Price Forecast in Russia for 2026
Dubai – Qahwa World
Experts have warned that coffee prices in Russia could see a significant rise in 2026. Sergey Mitrofanov, Marketing Director at Svarshchitsa Ekaterina, explained the factors influencing coffee prices and why an increase is expected to continue.
Mitrofanov noted that the cost of coffee results from a long chain of processes, including crop yields in producing countries, climate risks, global demand, logistics, roasting, inflation, and currency fluctuations. Since the Russian market relies entirely on imports, the dollar exchange rate directly affects the final coffee price.
The expert highlighted that most of the global coffee volume is traded on international exchanges: Robusta on the London Intercontinental Exchange and Arabica on the ICE in New York. According to ICE data, coffee prices reached about $3.25 per pound ($7.15 per kilogram) in September 2025, one of the highest levels in recent years. Between September 2024 and September 2025, global coffee prices rose by roughly 25%.
Mitrofanov indicated that prices are expected to continue rising, with a projected increase of around 20% in 2026. He explained that changes on the exchanges affect retail prices with a delay, as most purchases are contracted 6–12 months in advance.
He also noted that a poor harvest in one country does not automatically mean a shortage, as supply can be compensated by neighboring countries. Specialty coffee roasters continue to seek alternative lots to maintain quality while balancing cost, keeping options open for the Russian market.
Mitrofanov added that other costs such as equipment, maintenance, and logistics are rising year by year, which adds additional pressure on coffee prices. However, he noted that the strengthening of the ruble in the first half of 2025 temporarily lowered retail prices, and the market outlook for 2026 will depend on multiple factors.
Earlier reports showed that Americano and Latte were the most purchased drinks in Russian stores. There were also statements from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding plans to reduce coffee tariffs in global markets.
