Experts Warn: Coffee Prices in Russia Could Rise by Up to 40% in 2026 Amid Climate and Supply Chain Risks
Coffee prices in Russia are expected to rise in 2026 — anywhere from 5% to 40%, depending on global market developments. Economist Lyuza Baiguzina attributes this projected increase to extreme weather conditions in producing countries, rising inflation, and shifting consumer demand.
Moscow – August 2, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Russian consumers should brace for another spike in coffee prices in 2026, warns Lyuza Baiguzina, Candidate of Economic Sciences and Associate Professor at IMES, in an interview with Gazeta.Ru. According to her, even in the most optimistic case, a price increase is inevitable.
Baiguzina points to several contributing factors:
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Drought and extreme weather in key producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam,
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Global inflation, increasing production and transportation costs,
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Changing consumption patterns, with coffee becoming more of a lifestyle product.
Forecasted Scenarios for 2026:
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Optimistic (5–10%) – if weather conditions stabilize and supply chains normalize.
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Moderate (10–20%) – if current negative trends persist without worsening.
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Pessimistic (20–40% or more) – if droughts, inflation, and disruptions continue or intensify.
According to the analytics platform Kontur.Market, coffee prices in Russian stores already rose by 27% over the past year, with a 150g package now averaging 379 rubles. Despite this, demand increased by 4%, showing strong consumer attachment to coffee.
Earlier in 2025, reports indicated that Arabica coffee could rise by another 40% by year-end, due to a weakening ruble, logistical delays, and droughts in Brazil — the world’s largest coffee exporter.
In mid-September 2024, global coffee prices reached a 13-year high, exceeding $2.68 per pound ($5.9 per kilogram). The spike was caused by extreme heat and low rainfall in Brazil, damaging harvests and tightening global supply.
What Lies Ahead for Russia’s Coffee Market?
Experts agree that weather conditions in producing countries will continue to play a decisive role. However, another rising factor is cultural: more Russians are viewing coffee not just as a beverage, but as a lifestyle symbol — potentially increasing long-term demand.
Meanwhile, despite global uncertainties, Indonesian coffee exports to Russia surged nearly tenfold between January and May 2025, totaling $33.4 million in trade value — indicating growing diversification in sourcing.
