Coffee Prices Edge Higher After Hitting Fresh Lows Amid Mixed Market Signals
Global coffee prices saw a modest rebound on Friday following new multi-week lows, as traders engaged in pre-weekend short covering while market fundamentals presented a complex mix of bearish and bullish signals.
Market Snapshot
July arabica coffee (KCN25) rose by +1.50 cents (+0.43%) and July robusta coffee (RMN25) gained +34 points (+0.77%), reversing earlier losses. Arabica futures touched a two-week low, while robusta prices dipped to a seven-month low before staging a mild recovery.
Despite Friday’s gains, coffee prices have remained under pressure over the past five weeks due to favorable harvest conditions and expectations of increased output from key producers.
Brazilian Harvest Update
Brazil’s ongoing harvest continues to weigh on prices. According to Cooxupe, the country’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, 13.7% of the 2025/26 harvest is complete, nearly identical to last year’s 13.6% at this time. Meanwhile, Safras & Mercado reported that 35% of the national harvest is finished as of June 11, including 49% of the robusta crop and 26% of the arabica. Persistent rainfall in arabica-growing regions, particularly in Minas Gerais, has slowed progress. Somar Meteorologia reported 23.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais during the week ending June 7—207% above the historical average.
Inventory and Export Dynamics
On the inventory front, ICE-monitored arabica stocks stood at 846,291 bags as of Friday, down slightly from a recent 4.25-month high of 892,468 bags recorded on May 27. Robusta inventories fell to a three-week low of 5,184 lots on Thursday, providing limited support for robusta prices.
Meanwhile, export data from Brazil offered a bullish counterpoint. Cecafe reported that green coffee exports in May fell 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags, driven by logistical delays and tighter supply.
Vietnam’s Volatile Outlook
Vietnam’s robusta sector remains under stress. The 2023/24 crop dropped 20% due to drought, yielding just 1.472 million metric tons—the lowest in four years. Exports have also declined sharply, with 2024 volumes down 17.1% y/y and January–May 2025 exports falling 1.8% to 813,000 MT. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association recently cut its 2024/25 production estimate from 28 million to 26.5 million bags. However, USDA projections for 2025/26 forecast a 7% rebound to 30 million bags.
Global Production and Deficit Projections
According to the USDA’s December biannual report, global coffee production in 2024/25 is expected to rise by 4.0% year-over-year to 174.86 million bags, including 97.85 million bags of arabica and 77.01 million of robusta. Despite this increase, global ending stocks are projected to fall by 6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.87 million bags.
Looking further ahead, commodities trader Volcafe anticipates a global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags in 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million bag shortfall in 2024/25—marking the fifth consecutive year of global supply shortages.
Conclusion
While near-term market sentiment remains pressured by ample supply and favorable weather in Brazil, structural deficits in arabica and declining robusta output in Vietnam could provide longer-term support. Investors continue to monitor weather patterns, harvest pace, inventory levels, and export flows for signs of volatility in the months ahead.
