Easing Weather Threats in Brazil and Vietnam Weigh on Coffee Prices
Dubai – Qahwa World
Coffee prices dropped sharply on Thursday after giving up early gains, with December Arabica down 2.54% and November Robusta falling 3.9%.
The decline came as weather conditions improved in two of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. Forecasts from Brazil’s Climatempo predicted weekend rains across the coffee-growing regions, while Vietnam’s weather office reduced the likelihood of heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Fengshen over the Central Highlands—its main coffee belt—lessening the risk of crop damage.
In Brazil, prices had earlier rallied on concerns over severe drought during the flowering phase of coffee trees, which is critical for the 2026/27 harvest. The state of Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica-producing region, received only about 70% of its average rainfall in the past month.
In contrast, Robusta prices faced downward pressure following data from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office showing that the country’s coffee exports from January to September 2025 rose +10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 MMT. Production for 2025/26 is forecast to rise +6% to 1.76 MMT (approximately 29.4 million bags), the highest level in four years.
Lower inventories on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) provided only partial support. ICE-monitored Arabica stocks fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks hit a 3-month low of 6,141 lots.
Optimism surrounding trade talks between the United States and Brazil also weighed on prices. Reports suggest discussions may lead to the removal of the 50% tariffs currently imposed on Brazilian imports, a move that could ease supply constraints in the U.S. market.
Meanwhile, International Coffee Organization (ICO) data showed that global coffee exports for the current 2024/25 season (October–August) rose +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating ample supply.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab lowered its 2025 harvest estimate to 55.2 million bags (-0.9% from May), reducing Arabica output to 35.2 million bags (-4.9%).
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in 2025/26 is expected to rise +2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, driven by a +7.9% increase in Robusta to 81.65 million bags, despite a -1.7% decline in Arabica output.
Trading company Volcafe projects a global Arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for 2025/26—wider than the 5.5 million-bag shortfall recorded in 2024/25 and marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits.
